Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2017GL073606 |
Probabilistic estimates of drought impacts on agricultural production | |
Madadgar, Shahrbanou1; AghaKouchak, Amir1; Farahmand, Alireza1; Davis, Steven J.2 | |
2017-08-16 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 44期号:15 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Increases in the severity and frequency of drought in a warming climate may negatively impact agricultural production and food security. Unlike previous studies that have estimated agricultural impacts of climate condition using single-crop yield distributions, we develop a multivariate probabilistic model that uses projected climatic conditions (e.g., precipitation amount or soil moisture) throughout a growing season to estimate the probability distribution of crop yields. We demonstrate the model by an analysis of the historical period 1980-2012, including the Millennium Drought in Australia (2001-2009). We find that precipitation and soil moisture deficit in dry growing seasons reduced the average annual yield of the five largest crops in Australia (wheat, broad beans, canola, lupine, and barley) by 25-45% relative to the wet growing seasons. Our model can thus produce region-and crop-specific agricultural sensitivities to climate conditions and variability. Probabilistic estimates of yield may help decision-makers in government and business to quantitatively assess the vulnerability of agriculture to climate variations. We develop a multivariate probabilistic model that uses precipitation to estimate the probability distribution of crop yields. The proposed model shows how the probability distribution of crop yield changes in response to droughts. During Australia's Millennium Drought precipitation and soil moisture deficit reduced the average annual yield of the five largest crops. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000408379000028 |
WOS关键词 | CROP-YIELD DISTRIBUTIONS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS ; WHEAT YIELD ; SOIL-TEMPERATURE ; MODEL ; PRECIPITATION ; VARIABILITY ; FORECASTS ; EXTREMES ; MOISTURE |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/26585 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Calif Irvine, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Irvine, CA 92697 USA; 2.Univ Calif Irvine, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Irvine, CA USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Madadgar, Shahrbanou,AghaKouchak, Amir,Farahmand, Alireza,et al. Probabilistic estimates of drought impacts on agricultural production[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,44(15). |
APA | Madadgar, Shahrbanou,AghaKouchak, Amir,Farahmand, Alireza,&Davis, Steven J..(2017).Probabilistic estimates of drought impacts on agricultural production.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,44(15). |
MLA | Madadgar, Shahrbanou,et al."Probabilistic estimates of drought impacts on agricultural production".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 44.15(2017). |
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