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DOI | 10.1029/2018GL079566 |
Proxy-Based Assessment of Strength and Frequency of Meteotsunamis in Future Climate | |
Vilibic, Ivica1; Sepic, Jadranka1; Dunic, Natalija1; Sevault, Florence2; Monserrat, Sebastian3; Jorda, Gabriel3,4 | |
2018-10-16 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 45期号:19页码:10501-10508 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Croatia; France; Spain |
英文摘要 | A climate synoptic meteotsunami index has been constructed using synoptic variables for the Balearic Islands. The index allows for the very first assessment of atmospherically driven intense sea level oscillations at the tsunami timescale (< 2 hr) in future climates. The index has been computed using outputs from evaluation, historical, and three scenario MED-11_CNRM Med-CORDEX regional atmospheric climate runs. The reliability of the index has been verified against reanalysis simulations and on documented meteotsunami events. No significant changes in the index are projected under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, while the yearly number of days with meteotsunamis is expected to increase by 34% under the RCP8.5 scenario by the year 2100. This increase will dominantly occur during the summer season (May-August), being contemporaneous with maximum index values. The presented results are relevant for assessment of sea level extremes worldwide, since high-frequency sea level oscillations may contribute up to 40% of the total range. Plain Language Summary The study aims to develop the proxy methodology to be used for assessment of meteotsunamis-atmospherically driven waves in a tsunami frequency band-in the future climate, as the present climate models are far from reproduction of processes on a minute and a kilometer scale. The proxy estimates are based on connecting synoptic parameters and patterns to the high-frequency sea level observations. The methodology is successfully verified for Ciutadella harbor, a known hot spot for meteotsunamis, on state-of-the-art reanalysis data. It seems that meteotsunamis are likely not to increase in all but business-as-usual (RCP8.5) climate scenarios, where the increase is matching the season when meteotsunami reach their maximum (spring-summer). The methodology might be useful for assessing meteotsunami hazard in future climates, while being applied at places where meteotsunamis are driven dominantly by a single atmospheric process. Global and regional analyses indicate that these might encompass the majority of midlatitudal regions. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000448656800054 |
WOS关键词 | LARGE-AMPLITUDE ; FIELD SURVEY ; TSUNAMI ; ISLANDS |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/26527 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Inst Oceanog & Fisheries, Split, Croatia; 2.Meteo France, CNRM UMR 3589, Toulouse, France; 3.Univ Balearic Isl, Dept Phys, Palma de Mallorca, Spain; 4.Ctr Oceanog Balears, Inst Espanol Oceanog, Palma de Mallorca, Spain |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Vilibic, Ivica,Sepic, Jadranka,Dunic, Natalija,et al. Proxy-Based Assessment of Strength and Frequency of Meteotsunamis in Future Climate[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,45(19):10501-10508. |
APA | Vilibic, Ivica,Sepic, Jadranka,Dunic, Natalija,Sevault, Florence,Monserrat, Sebastian,&Jorda, Gabriel.(2018).Proxy-Based Assessment of Strength and Frequency of Meteotsunamis in Future Climate.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,45(19),10501-10508. |
MLA | Vilibic, Ivica,et al."Proxy-Based Assessment of Strength and Frequency of Meteotsunamis in Future Climate".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 45.19(2018):10501-10508. |
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