GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1002/2016GL072439
Contribution of human influence to increased daily precipitation extremes over China
Chen, Huopo1,2,3; Sun, Jianqi1,2,3
2017-03-16
发表期刊GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN0094-8276
EISSN1944-8007
出版年2017
卷号44期号:5
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Peoples R China
英文摘要

This study provides an estimate of the human influence on increases in daily precipitation extremes over China using data sets from multiple coupled climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The effects of human forcings can be detected in the observed changes of daily precipitation extremes, but the effects of external natural forcings as well as the aerosols are not detected using the optimal fingerprint methods. Estimation showed that human influence has increased daily precipitation extremes by approximately 13% (1% to 25% for 90% confidence interval) on average over China in recent decades. With further warming, human influences on precipitation extremes would be amplified. For a temperature increase of 1.5 degrees C with respect to the preindustrial time, the occurrence probability of severe extremes is doubled, and approximately 51% of these events occurring over China are attributable to human influences. This fraction increases with temperature. Furthermore, the contributions of human influences are much stronger for the high-percentile extremes, and the highest sensitivity of the changes in daily precipitation extremes due to human influences is observed in the region of the Tibetan Plateau in the southwest of China.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000398183700044
WOS关键词CLIMATE ; ATTRIBUTION ; EVENTS ; CMIP5 ; RISK
WOS类目Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向Geology
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/26496
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Nansen Zhu Int Res Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China;
2.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Nanjing, Peoples R China;
3.Chengdu Univ Informat Technol, Joint Lab Climate & Environm Change, Chengdu, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Chen, Huopo,Sun, Jianqi. Contribution of human influence to increased daily precipitation extremes over China[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,44(5).
APA Chen, Huopo,&Sun, Jianqi.(2017).Contribution of human influence to increased daily precipitation extremes over China.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,44(5).
MLA Chen, Huopo,et al."Contribution of human influence to increased daily precipitation extremes over China".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 44.5(2017).
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