Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2018GL077278 |
Medium-Range Forecast Skill for Extraordinary Arctic Cyclones in Summer of 2008-2016 | |
Yamagami, Akio1; Matsueda, Mio1,2; Tanaka, Hiroshi L.1 | |
2018-05-16 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 45期号:9页码:4429-4437 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Japan; England |
英文摘要 | Arctic cyclones (ACs) are a severe atmospheric phenomenon that affects the Arctic environment. This study assesses the forecast skill of five leading operational medium-range ensemble forecasts for 10 extraordinary ACs that occurred in summer during 2008-2016. Average existence probability of the predicted ACs was >0.9 at lead times of <= 3.5days. Average central position error of the predicted ACs was less than half of the mean radius of the 10 ACs (469.1 km) at lead times of 2.5-4.5 days. Average central pressure error of the predicted ACs was 5.5-10.7 hPa at such lead times. Therefore, the operational ensemble prediction systems generally predict the position of ACs within 469.1 km 2.5-4.5 days before they mature. The forecast skill for the extraordinary ACs is lower than that for midlatitude cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere but similar to that in the Southern Hemisphere. |
英文关键词 | Arctic cyclone medium-range ensemble forecast forecast skill predictability |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000434111700075 |
WOS关键词 | HEMISPHERE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONES ; ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEMS ; FRONTAL ZONE ; ECMWF MODEL ; PREDICTABILITY ; PERFORMANCE ; TIMESCALES ; IMPACT ; OCEAN ; JET |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/26347 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Tsukuba, Ctr Computat Sci, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; 2.Univ Oxford, Dept Phys, Oxford, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Yamagami, Akio,Matsueda, Mio,Tanaka, Hiroshi L.. Medium-Range Forecast Skill for Extraordinary Arctic Cyclones in Summer of 2008-2016[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,45(9):4429-4437. |
APA | Yamagami, Akio,Matsueda, Mio,&Tanaka, Hiroshi L..(2018).Medium-Range Forecast Skill for Extraordinary Arctic Cyclones in Summer of 2008-2016.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,45(9),4429-4437. |
MLA | Yamagami, Akio,et al."Medium-Range Forecast Skill for Extraordinary Arctic Cyclones in Summer of 2008-2016".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 45.9(2018):4429-4437. |
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