Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2017GL075370 |
Current and Future Decadal Trends in the Oceanic Carbon Uptake Are Dominated by Internal Variability | |
Li, Hongmei; Ilyina, Tatiana | |
2018-01-28 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 45期号:2页码:916-925 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany |
英文摘要 | We investigate the internal decadal variability of the ocean carbon uptake using 100 ensemble simulations based on the Max Planck Institute Earth system model (MPI-ESM). We find that on decadal time scales, internal variability (ensemble spread) is as large as the forced temporal variability (ensemble mean), and the largest internal variability is found in major carbon sink regions, that is, the 50-65 degrees S band of the Southern Ocean, the North Pacific, and the North Atlantic. The MPI-ESM ensemble produces both positive and negative 10 year trends in the ocean carbon uptake in agreement with observational estimates. Negative decadal trends are projected to occur in the future under RCP4.5 scenario. Due to the large internal variability, the Southern Ocean and the North Pacific require the most ensemble members (more than 53 and 46, respectively) to reproduce the forced decadal trends. This number increases up to 79 in future decades as CO2 emission trajectory changes. |
英文关键词 | oceanic carbon uptake internal variability forced signal large ensemble simulations Earth system models decadal trends |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000425514300049 |
WOS关键词 | EARTH SYSTEM MODEL ; AIR CO2 FLUX ; NATURAL VARIABILITY ; VOLCANIC-ERUPTIONS ; ATMOSPHERIC CO2 ; CLIMATE ; TEMPERATURE ; ENSEMBLE ; BIOGEOCHEMISTRY ; PERFORMANCE |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/25959 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Hamburg, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Li, Hongmei,Ilyina, Tatiana. Current and Future Decadal Trends in the Oceanic Carbon Uptake Are Dominated by Internal Variability[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,45(2):916-925. |
APA | Li, Hongmei,&Ilyina, Tatiana.(2018).Current and Future Decadal Trends in the Oceanic Carbon Uptake Are Dominated by Internal Variability.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,45(2),916-925. |
MLA | Li, Hongmei,et al."Current and Future Decadal Trends in the Oceanic Carbon Uptake Are Dominated by Internal Variability".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 45.2(2018):916-925. |
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