GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1002/2017GL076829
Interdependency in Multimodel Climate Projections: Component Replication and Result Similarity
Boe, Julien
2018-03-28
发表期刊GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN0094-8276
EISSN1944-8007
出版年2018
卷号45期号:6页码:2771-2779
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家France
英文摘要

Multimodel ensembles are the main way to deal with model uncertainties in climate projections. However, the interdependencies between models that often share entire components make it difficult to combine their results in a satisfactory way. In this study, how the replication of components (atmosphere, ocean, land, and sea ice) between climate models impacts the proximity of their results is quantified precisely, in terms of climatological means and future changes. A clear relationship exists between the number of components shared by climate models and the proximity of their results. Even the impact of a single shared component is generally visible. These conclusions are true at both the global and regional scales. Given available data, it cannot be robustly concluded that some components are more important than others. Those results provide ways to estimate model interdependencies a priori rather than a posteriori based on their results, in order to define independence weights.


英文关键词climate change model independence multimodel probabilistic projection model weighting
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000430106000025
WOS关键词EARTH SYSTEM MODEL ; CMIP5 ; INDEPENDENCE ; DEPENDENCE ; REGION
WOS类目Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向Geology
引用统计
被引频次:32[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/25851
专题气候变化
作者单位Univ Toulouse, CNRS, CERFACS, CECI, Toulouse, France
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Boe, Julien. Interdependency in Multimodel Climate Projections: Component Replication and Result Similarity[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,45(6):2771-2779.
APA Boe, Julien.(2018).Interdependency in Multimodel Climate Projections: Component Replication and Result Similarity.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,45(6),2771-2779.
MLA Boe, Julien."Interdependency in Multimodel Climate Projections: Component Replication and Result Similarity".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 45.6(2018):2771-2779.
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