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DOI | 10.1002/2017GL076829 |
Interdependency in Multimodel Climate Projections: Component Replication and Result Similarity | |
Boe, Julien | |
2018-03-28 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 45期号:6页码:2771-2779 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | France |
英文摘要 | Multimodel ensembles are the main way to deal with model uncertainties in climate projections. However, the interdependencies between models that often share entire components make it difficult to combine their results in a satisfactory way. In this study, how the replication of components (atmosphere, ocean, land, and sea ice) between climate models impacts the proximity of their results is quantified precisely, in terms of climatological means and future changes. A clear relationship exists between the number of components shared by climate models and the proximity of their results. Even the impact of a single shared component is generally visible. These conclusions are true at both the global and regional scales. Given available data, it cannot be robustly concluded that some components are more important than others. Those results provide ways to estimate model interdependencies a priori rather than a posteriori based on their results, in order to define independence weights. |
英文关键词 | climate change model independence multimodel probabilistic projection model weighting |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000430106000025 |
WOS关键词 | EARTH SYSTEM MODEL ; CMIP5 ; INDEPENDENCE ; DEPENDENCE ; REGION |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/25851 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Univ Toulouse, CNRS, CERFACS, CECI, Toulouse, France |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Boe, Julien. Interdependency in Multimodel Climate Projections: Component Replication and Result Similarity[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,45(6):2771-2779. |
APA | Boe, Julien.(2018).Interdependency in Multimodel Climate Projections: Component Replication and Result Similarity.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,45(6),2771-2779. |
MLA | Boe, Julien."Interdependency in Multimodel Climate Projections: Component Replication and Result Similarity".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 45.6(2018):2771-2779. |
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