Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2017GL075627 |
Inflated Uncertainty in Multimodel-Based Regional Climate Projections | |
Madsen, Marianne Sloth1; Langen, Peter L.1; Boberg, Fredrik1; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg1,2,3 | |
2017-11-28 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
![]() |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 44期号:22 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Denmark; Norway |
英文摘要 | Multimodel ensembles are widely analyzed to estimate the range of future regional climate change projections. For an ensemble of climate models, the result is often portrayed by showing maps of the geographical distribution of the multimodel mean results and associated uncertainties represented by model spread at the grid point scale. Here we use a set of CMIP5 models to show that presenting statistics this way results in an overestimation of the projected range leading to physically implausible patterns of change on global but also on regional scales. We point out that similar inconsistencies occur in impact analyses relying on multimodel information extracted using statistics at the regional scale, for example, when a subset of CMIP models is selected to represent regional model spread. Consequently, the risk of unwanted impacts may be overestimated at larger scales as climate change impacts will never be realized as the worst (or best) case everywhere. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000419102300044 |
WOS关键词 | MODELS ; IMPACT ; SIMULATIONS ; CORDEX |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/25598 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Danish Meteorol Inst, Copenhagen O, Denmark; 2.Univ Copenhagen, Niels Bohr Inst, Copenhagen O, Denmark; 3.Uni Res Climate, Bergen, Norway |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Madsen, Marianne Sloth,Langen, Peter L.,Boberg, Fredrik,et al. Inflated Uncertainty in Multimodel-Based Regional Climate Projections[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,44(22). |
APA | Madsen, Marianne Sloth,Langen, Peter L.,Boberg, Fredrik,&Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg.(2017).Inflated Uncertainty in Multimodel-Based Regional Climate Projections.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,44(22). |
MLA | Madsen, Marianne Sloth,et al."Inflated Uncertainty in Multimodel-Based Regional Climate Projections".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 44.22(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论