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DOI | 10.1038/s41467-019-14233-8 |
Anthropogenically-driven increases in the risks of summertime compound hot extremes | |
Wang, Jun1; Chen, Yang2; Tett, Simon F. B.1,3; Yan, Zhongwei1,4; Zhai, Panmao2; Feng, Jinming1; Xia, Jiangjiang1 | |
2020-02-11 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
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ISSN | 2041-1723 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 11期号:1 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; Scotland |
英文摘要 | Compared to individual hot days/nights, compound hot extremes that combine daytime and nighttime heat are more impactful. However, past and future changes in compound hot extremes as well as their underlying drivers and societal impacts remain poorly understood. Here we show that during 1960-2012, significant increases in Northern Hemisphere average frequency (similar to 1.03 days decade(-1)) and intensity (similar to 0.28 degrees C decade(-1)) of summertime compound hot extremes arise primarily from summer-mean warming. The forcing of rising greenhouse gases (GHGs) is robustly detected and largely accounts for observed trends. Observationally-constrained projections suggest an approximate eightfold increase in hemispheric-average frequency and a threefold growth in intensity of summertime compound hot extremes by 2100 (relative to 2012), given uncurbed GHG emissions. Accordingly, end-of-century population exposure to compound hot extremes is projected to be four to eight times the 2010s level, dependent on demographic and climate scenarios. |
领域 | 地球科学 ; 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000514430200001 |
WOS关键词 | TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; HEAT WAVES ; MORTALITY ; INDEXES ; CMIP5 ; FREQUENT ; CHINA |
WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/249826 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Reg Climate Environm Temperate East Asia, Inst Atmospher Phys, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China; 2.Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, State Key Lab Severe Weather, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China; 3.Univ Edinburgh, Sch GeoSci, Edinburgh EH9 3FF, Midlothian, Scotland; 4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wang, Jun,Chen, Yang,Tett, Simon F. B.,et al. Anthropogenically-driven increases in the risks of summertime compound hot extremes[J]. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,2020,11(1). |
APA | Wang, Jun.,Chen, Yang.,Tett, Simon F. B..,Yan, Zhongwei.,Zhai, Panmao.,...&Xia, Jiangjiang.(2020).Anthropogenically-driven increases in the risks of summertime compound hot extremes.NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,11(1). |
MLA | Wang, Jun,et al."Anthropogenically-driven increases in the risks of summertime compound hot extremes".NATURE COMMUNICATIONS 11.1(2020). |
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