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DOI | 10.1029/2020GL087809 |
Unprecedented Europe Heat in June-July 2019: Risk in the Historical and Future Context | |
Ma, Feng1; Yuan, Xing1; Jiao, Yang1; Ji, Peng2 | |
2020-05-12 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 47期号:11 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | Western-central Europe experienced the most severe June-July heat on record in 2019, with several heatwaves occurring over the most densely populated regions. Highest 3-day averaged daily mean temperature in June-July averaged over the region exceeds normal by 4.7 degrees C, which is estimated to be a 1-in-283-year event over the 1950-2014 climate. The driver and future likelihood of this extreme heat in a changing climate have drawn extensive attention. Based on the newly released climate model data from the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we find that anthropogenic climate change has caused a sevenfold increase in the likelihood of the extreme heat over 1950-2014 climate, and even a 23-fold increase since 1980s. Such extreme heat will become more frequent in the future, with return periods of 1.8-7.2 years under future emission and societal development scenarios. Without sufficient adaptation strategies, such extreme heat would become more widespread, long-lasting, and severe over Europe. |
英文关键词 | heat anthropogenic climate change attribution future projection CMIP6 |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000543387400041 |
WOS关键词 | SUMMER HEAT ; SOIL-MOISTURE ; TEMPERATURE ; RECORD ; WAVES ; CMIP5 ; HOT ; ATTRIBUTION ; EXTREMES ; EVENTS |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/249111 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Sch Hydrol & Water Resources, Nanjing, Peoples R China; 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Reg Climate Environm Temperate East Asia, Inst Atmospher Phys, Beijing, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ma, Feng,Yuan, Xing,Jiao, Yang,et al. Unprecedented Europe Heat in June-July 2019: Risk in the Historical and Future Context[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2020,47(11). |
APA | Ma, Feng,Yuan, Xing,Jiao, Yang,&Ji, Peng.(2020).Unprecedented Europe Heat in June-July 2019: Risk in the Historical and Future Context.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,47(11). |
MLA | Ma, Feng,et al."Unprecedented Europe Heat in June-July 2019: Risk in the Historical and Future Context".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 47.11(2020). |
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