Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1289/EHP1756 |
Longer-Term Impact of High and Low Temperature on Mortality: An International Study to Clarify Length of Mortality Displacement | |
Armstrong, Ben1; Bell, Michelle L.2; Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline de Sousa3; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon4; Guo, Yuming5; Goodman, Patrick6; Hashizume, Masahiro7; Honda, Yasushi8; Kim, Ho9; Lavigne, Eric10; Michelozzi, Paola11; Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario3; Schwartz, Joel12; Scortichini, Matteo11; Sera, Francesco1; Tobias, Aurelio13; Tong, Shilu14,15,16; Wu, Chang-fu17; Zanobetti, Antonella12; Zeka, Ariana18; Gasparrini, Antonio1 | |
2017-10-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES
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ISSN | 0091-6765 |
EISSN | 1552-9924 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 125期号:10 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England; USA; Brazil; Taiwan; Australia; Ireland; Japan; South Korea; Canada; Italy; Spain; Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | BACKGROUND: In many places, daily mortality has been shown to increase after days with particularly high or low temperatures, but such daily time series studies cannot identify whether such increases reflect substantial life shortening or short-term displacement of deaths (harvesting). OBJECTIVES: To clarify this issue, we estimated the association between annual mortality and annual summaries of heat and cold in 278 locations from 12 countries. METHODS: Indices of annual heat and cold were used as predictors in regressions of annual mortality in each location, allowing for trends over time and clustering of annual count anomalies by country and pooling estimates using meta regression. We used two indices of annual heat and cold based on preliminary standard daily analyses: a) mean annual degrees above/below minimum mortality temperature (MMT), and b) estimated fractions of deaths attributed to heat and cold. The first index was simpler and matched previous related research; the second was added because it allowed the interpretation that coefficients equal to 0 and 1 are consistent with none (0) or all (1) of the deaths attributable in daily analyses being displaced by at least 1 y. RESULTS: On average, regression coefficients of annual mortality on heat and cold mean degrees were 1.7% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.3, 3.1] and 1.1% (95% CI: 0.6, 1.6) per degree, respectively, and daily attributable fractions were 0.8 (95% CI: 0.2, 1.3) and 1.1 (95% CI: 0.9, 1.4). The proximity of the latter coefficients to 1.0 provides evidence that most deaths found attributable to heat and cold in daily analyses were brought forward by at least 1 y. Estimates were broadly robust to alternative model assumptions. CONCLUSIONS: These results provide strong evidence that most deaths associated in daily analyses with heat and cold are displaced by at least 1 y. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000461491700002 |
WOS关键词 | HEAT-RELATED DEATHS ; AMBIENT-TEMPERATURE ; DISEASE ; WAVES |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health ; Toxicology |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health ; Toxicology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/23494 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Social & Environm Hlth Res, London, England; 2.Yale Univ, Sch Forestry & Environm Studies, New Haven, CT 06511 USA; 3.Univ Sao Paulo, Inst Adv Studies, Sao Paulo, Brazil; 4.Natl Taiwan Univ, Dept Environm & Occupat Med, Taipei, Taiwan; 5.Monash Univ, Sch Publ Hlth & Prevent Med, Dept Epidemiol & Prevent Med, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; 6.Dublin Inst Technol, Environm Hlth Sci Inst, Dublin, Ireland; 7.Nagasaki Univ, Inst Trop Med, Dept Pediat Infect Dis, Nagasaki, Japan; 8.Univ Tsukuba, Fac Hlth & Sport Sci, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; 9.Seoul Natl Univ, Grad Sch Publ Hlth, Seoul, South Korea; 10.Univ Ottawa, Sch Epidemiol Publ Hlth & Prevent Med, Ottawa, ON, Canada; 11.Lazio Reg Hlth Serv, Dept Epidemiol, Rome, Italy; 12.Harvard TH Chan Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Environm Hlth, Boston, MA USA; 13.Spanish Council Sci Res CSIC, Inst Environm Assessment & Water Res IDAEA, Barcelona, Spain; 14.Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ, Shanghai Childrens Med Ctr, Shanghai, Peoples R China; 15.Anhui Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Hefei, Anhui, Peoples R China; 16.Queensland Univ Technol, Sch Publ Hlth & Social Work, Brisbane, Qld, Australia; 17.Natl Taiwan Univ, Dept Publ Hlth, Taipei, Taiwan; 18.Brunel Univ London, Inst Environm Hlth & Soc, London, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Armstrong, Ben,Bell, Michelle L.,Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline de Sousa,et al. Longer-Term Impact of High and Low Temperature on Mortality: An International Study to Clarify Length of Mortality Displacement[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES,2017,125(10). |
APA | Armstrong, Ben.,Bell, Michelle L..,Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline de Sousa.,Guo, Yue-Liang Leon.,Guo, Yuming.,...&Gasparrini, Antonio.(2017).Longer-Term Impact of High and Low Temperature on Mortality: An International Study to Clarify Length of Mortality Displacement.ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES,125(10). |
MLA | Armstrong, Ben,et al."Longer-Term Impact of High and Low Temperature on Mortality: An International Study to Clarify Length of Mortality Displacement".ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES 125.10(2017). |
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