Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2018JD029473 |
Land-Atmosphere Coupling Regimes in a Future Climate in Africa: From Model Evaluation to Projections Based on CORDEX-Africa | |
Soares, Pedro M. M.1; Careto, Joao A. M.1; Cardoso, Rita M.1; Goergen, Klaus2,3; Trigo, Ricardo M.1,4 | |
2019-11-16 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
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ISSN | 2169-897X |
EISSN | 2169-8996 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 124期号:21页码:11118-11142 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Portugal; Germany; Brazil |
英文摘要 | Land-atmosphere coupling plays a crucial role in determining the evolution of weather and climate. In the current study, the full ensemble of CORDEX-Africa climate change simulations is used to understand how strong and weak coupling regions in Africa will evolve in the future. The ability of the regional climate models to capture the coupling signal relies on a reasonable representation of near surface air temperature, precipitation, surface fluxes, and soil moisture. A thorough model evaluation reveals typical shortcomings in the representation of the African climate, in particular seasonal precipitation. The multimodel ensemble mean outperforms the individual models and is therefore used for the investigation of the land-atmosphere coupling. This ensemble mean shows a widespread warming in Africa and changes in precipitation, such as a decrease in the Sahel during summer and an increase in western Africa during summer and autumn. The coupling analysis relies on surface fluxes, the related evaporative fraction and their correlations as well as the correlation between evaporative fraction and soil moisture. Overall, water-limited regions that exhibit a strong land-atmosphere coupling are projected to expand further southward in West Africa and further northward in southern Africa. This is particularly true over the Sahel during spring and summer, when the strong coupling region shifts southward, indicating a potential expansion of the semiarid and arid regions. A transition of energy limited regimes, with weak coupling, to water-limited regimes where soil moisture plays a more important role, is projected for the end of the 21st century as drying continues. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000499270600007 |
WOS关键词 | SEASONAL-VARIATION ; SURFACE RADIATION ; SATELLITE ; PRECIPITATION ; EVAPORATION ; PERFORMANCE ; REANALYSIS ; ENSEMBLE ; ASSIMILATION ; SIMULATIONS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/225777 |
专题 | 环境与发展全球科技态势 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Lisbon, Inst Dom Luiz IDL, Fac Ciencias, Lisbon, Portugal; 2.Res Ctr Julich, Inst Bio & Geosci Agrosphere IBG 3, Julich, Germany; 3.Geoverbund ABC J, Ctr High Performance Sci Comp Terr Syst, Julich, Germany; 4.Univ Fed Rio de Janeiro, Dept Meteorol, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Soares, Pedro M. M.,Careto, Joao A. M.,Cardoso, Rita M.,et al. Land-Atmosphere Coupling Regimes in a Future Climate in Africa: From Model Evaluation to Projections Based on CORDEX-Africa[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2019,124(21):11118-11142. |
APA | Soares, Pedro M. M.,Careto, Joao A. M.,Cardoso, Rita M.,Goergen, Klaus,&Trigo, Ricardo M..(2019).Land-Atmosphere Coupling Regimes in a Future Climate in Africa: From Model Evaluation to Projections Based on CORDEX-Africa.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,124(21),11118-11142. |
MLA | Soares, Pedro M. M.,et al."Land-Atmosphere Coupling Regimes in a Future Climate in Africa: From Model Evaluation to Projections Based on CORDEX-Africa".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 124.21(2019):11118-11142. |
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