Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0230.1 |
Predictive Skill and Predictable Patterns of the US Seasonal Precipitation in CFSv2 Reforecasts of 60 Years (1958-2017) | |
Huang, Bohua1,2; Shin, Chul-Su1,2; Kumar, Arun3 | |
2019-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 32期号:24页码:8603-8637 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Analyzing a set of ensemble seasonal reforecasts for 1958-2017 using CFSv2, we evaluate the predictive skill of the U.S. seasonal mean precipitation and examine its sources of predictability. Our analysis is for each of the three periods of 1958-78, 1979-99, and 2000-17, corresponding to the positive phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) during 1979-99 and negative ones before and after. The ensemble reforecasts at two-month lead reproduce the spatial distribution of winter precipitation trends throughout the 60 years and the continental-scale increase of summer precipitation since 2000. The predicted signal-to-noise (S/N) ratio also reveals greater predictability in the post-1979 period than during 1958-78. A maximized S/N ratio EOF analysis is applied to the ensemble seasonal precipitation predictions. In winter and spring, the most predictable patterns feature a north-south dipole throughout United States. The summer and fall patterns are dominated by the anomalies in central and southern United States, respectively. In verification with observations, the winter-spring patterns are more skillful. ENSO influences on these predictable patterns are most dominant in winter and spring, but other oceanic factors also play an active role during summer and fall. The multidecadal change of the U.S. precipitation predictability is attributable to the low-frequency modulation of the ENSO predictability and the influences of other major climate modes. PDO can be a dominant factor associated with enhanced prediction skill in 1979-99 and reduced skill in 1958-78. Since the 2000s, the forcing from the SST anomalies in the tropical North Atlantic with opposite sign to those in the tropical Pacific becomes a significant factor for the U.S. summer precipitation prediction. |
英文关键词 | Atmosphere-ocean interaction ENSO Precipitation Seasonal forecasting Climate models Multidecadal variability |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000498885500005 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM ; SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; ATLANTIC MULTIDECADAL OSCILLATION ; AMERICAN MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE ; ENSO COUPLED VARIABILITY ; NORTH-ATLANTIC ; EL-NINO ; TROPICAL ATLANTIC ; UNITED-STATES ; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/225658 |
专题 | 环境与发展全球科技态势 |
作者单位 | 1.George Mason Univ, Dept Atmospher Ocean & Earth Sci, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA; 2.George Mason Univ, Ctr Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA; 3.NOAA, Climate Predict Ctr, NWS, Natl Ctr Environm Predict, College Pk, MD USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Huang, Bohua,Shin, Chul-Su,Kumar, Arun. Predictive Skill and Predictable Patterns of the US Seasonal Precipitation in CFSv2 Reforecasts of 60 Years (1958-2017)[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2019,32(24):8603-8637. |
APA | Huang, Bohua,Shin, Chul-Su,&Kumar, Arun.(2019).Predictive Skill and Predictable Patterns of the US Seasonal Precipitation in CFSv2 Reforecasts of 60 Years (1958-2017).JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,32(24),8603-8637. |
MLA | Huang, Bohua,et al."Predictive Skill and Predictable Patterns of the US Seasonal Precipitation in CFSv2 Reforecasts of 60 Years (1958-2017)".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 32.24(2019):8603-8637. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论