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DOI | 10.1002/joc.6374 |
Projection of hydroclimate extreme indices over the Indochina region under climate change using a large single-model ensemble | |
Hanittinan, Patinya; Tachikawa, Yasuto; Ram-Indra, Teerawat | |
2019-11-27 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY |
ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2019 |
文章类型 | Article;Early Access |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Japan |
英文摘要 | Results from the multiple-realization, single-model ensemble called "d4PDF" were used to generate hydroclimate indices for present and future climates over the Indochina region. The model performed reasonably well in capturing the reference precipitation characteristics of the present climate (1951-2010), in particular the seasonal pattern (e.g., JJA and SON) and intensity-based indices such as SDII, R95p, Rx1D, and Rx3D. Under the +4 K future simulation conditions for 2051-2110, comprising six prescribed sea-surface temperature scenarios, substantial and statistically significant increases in precipitation frequency (R10 and R20) and intensity (SDII, Rx1D, and Rx3D) were projected over the Indochinese Peninsula with a high degree of consistency. However, there were greater uncertainties in the changes significance of mean precipitation either during early dry-season (DJF) or late monsoon (SON) indices demonstrated by results of the parametric U test in some river catchments, such as the Chao Phraya, Red River, central Mekong, lower Irrawaddy, and Salween Basins, where the projection consistencies in a positive change direction were less than 50%. Comparison of basin-wide empirical probability distributions of precipitation indices pointed to a robust increase in the frequency of the occurrence of heavy precipitation in intensity indices (e.g., Rx1D, Rx3D, and SDII). The relationship between d4PDF precipitation and total runoff generation outputs from the land surface component was investigated. The results show a high degree of temporal correspondence across the region under the present climate in several seasonal and intensity indices, except during the dry period (DJF and MAM). Finally, we found that epsilon(P)(P, R) of the annual and seasonal climatological indices of the future climate were always positive and larger than unity, with a median epsilon(P)(P, R) of 1.28-2.04. The results strongly reaffirm the role of rainfall as the main driver of runoff changes due to its faster response relative to change in precipitation at the Indochina Region. |
英文关键词 | d4PDF extreme indices precipitation runoff elasticities single-model ensemble statistical significance total runoff |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000498807900001 |
WOS关键词 | PRECIPITATION EXTREMES ; KOLMOGOROV-SMIRNOV ; PART I ; TEMPERATURE ; RAINFALL ; TRENDS ; ASIA ; STATISTICS ; STREAMFLOW ; RESPONSES |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/225462 |
专题 | 环境与发展全球科技态势 |
作者单位 | Kyoto Univ, Grad Sch Engn, Dept Civil & Earth Resources Engn, Kyoto, Japan |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Hanittinan, Patinya,Tachikawa, Yasuto,Ram-Indra, Teerawat. Projection of hydroclimate extreme indices over the Indochina region under climate change using a large single-model ensemble[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019. |
APA | Hanittinan, Patinya,Tachikawa, Yasuto,&Ram-Indra, Teerawat.(2019).Projection of hydroclimate extreme indices over the Indochina region under climate change using a large single-model ensemble.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY. |
MLA | Hanittinan, Patinya,et al."Projection of hydroclimate extreme indices over the Indochina region under climate change using a large single-model ensemble".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY (2019). |
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