Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.14766 |
Climate change alters elevational phenology patterns of the European spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus) | |
Jakoby, Oliver; Lischke, Heike; Wermelinger, Beat | |
2019-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY |
ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 25期号:12页码:4048-4063 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Switzerland |
英文摘要 | The European spruce bark beetle Ips typographus is the most important insect pest in Central European forests. Under climate change, its phenology is presumed to be changing and mass infestations becoming more likely. While several studies have investigated climate effects across a latitudinal gradient, it remains an open question how phenology will change depending on elevation and topology. Knowing how an altered climate is likely to affect bark beetle populations, particularly across diverse topographies and elevations, is essential for adaptive management. We developed a time-varying distributed delay model to predict the phenology of I. typographus. This approach has the particular advantage of capturing the variability within populations and thus representing its stage structure at any time. The model is applied for three regional climate change scenarios, A1B, A2 and RCP3PD, to the diverse topography of Switzerland, covering a large range of elevations, aspects and slopes. We found a strong negative relationship between voltinism and elevation. Under climate change, the model predicts an increasing number of generations over the whole elevational gradient, which will be more pronounced at low elevations. In contrast, the pre-shift in spring swarming is expected to be greater at higher elevations. In comparison, the general trend of faster beetle development on steep southern slopes is only of minor importance. Overall, the maximum elevation allowing a complete yearly generation will move upwards. Generally, the predicted increase in number of generations, earlier spring swarming, more aggregated swarming, together with a projected increase in drought and storm events, will result in a higher risk of mass infestations. This will increase the pressure on spruce stands particularly in the lowlands and require intensified management efforts. It calls for adapted long-term silvicultural strategies to mitigate the loss of ecosystem services such as timber production protection against rockfall and avalanches and carbon storage. |
英文关键词 | forest pest infestation risk Norway spruce (Picea abies) phenology temperature time-varying distributed delay model voltinism |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000494691700006 |
WOS关键词 | TEMPERATURE-DEPENDENT DEVELOPMENT ; PINE PROCESSIONARY MOTH ; POPULATION-DYNAMICS ; NORWAY SPRUCE ; FOREST DISTURBANCE ; L COL ; IMPACT ; MODEL ; L. ; COLEOPTERA |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/225301 |
专题 | 环境与发展全球科技态势 |
作者单位 | Swiss Fed Res Inst WSL, Zurcherstr 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jakoby, Oliver,Lischke, Heike,Wermelinger, Beat. Climate change alters elevational phenology patterns of the European spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus)[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2019,25(12):4048-4063. |
APA | Jakoby, Oliver,Lischke, Heike,&Wermelinger, Beat.(2019).Climate change alters elevational phenology patterns of the European spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus).GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,25(12),4048-4063. |
MLA | Jakoby, Oliver,et al."Climate change alters elevational phenology patterns of the European spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus)".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 25.12(2019):4048-4063. |
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