Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ab4b71 |
Projecting global urban land expansion and heat island intensification through 2050 | |
Huang, Kangning1; Li, Xia2; Liu, Xiaoping3; Seto, Karen C.1 | |
2019-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
![]() |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 14期号:11 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | Urban populations are expected to increase by 2?3 billion by 2050, but we have limited understanding of how future global urban expansion will affect urban heat island (UHI) and hence change the geographic distributions of extreme heat risks. Here we develop spatially explicit probabilistic global projections of UHI intensification due to urban land expansion through 2050. Our projections show that urban land areas are expected to expand by 0.6?1.3 million km(2) between 2015 and 2050, an increase of 78%?171% over the urban footprint in 2015. This urban land expansion will result in average summer daytime and nighttime warming in air temperature of 0.5 ;C?0.7 ;C, up to ?3 ;C in some locations. This warming is on average about half, and sometimes up to two times, as strong as that caused by greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (multi-model ensemble average projections in Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5). This extra urban expansion-induced warming, presented here, will increase extreme heat risks for about half of the future urban population, primarily in the tropical Global South, where existing forecasts already indicate stronger GHG emissions-warming and lack of adaptive capacity. In these vulnerable urban areas, policy interventions to restrict or redistribute urban expansion and planning strategies to mitigate UHIs are needed to reduce the wide ranges of impacts on human health, energy system, urban ecosystem, and infrastructures. |
英文关键词 | urbanization urban climate land change science sustainability |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000499323100001 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; TEMPERATURE ; IMPACTS ; ADAPTATION ; URBANIZATION ; EXTREMES ; CONTEXT ; GROWTH ; MODEL |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/224696 |
专题 | 环境与发展全球科技态势 |
作者单位 | 1.Yale Univ, Yale Sch Forestry & Environm Studies, New Haven, CT 06511 USA; 2.East China Normal Univ, Minist Educ, Key Lab Geog Informat Sci, Sch Geog Sci, Shanghai 200241, Peoples R China; 3.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Geog & Planning, Guangdong Key Lab Urbanizat & Geosimulat, Guangzhou 510275, Guangdong, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Huang, Kangning,Li, Xia,Liu, Xiaoping,et al. Projecting global urban land expansion and heat island intensification through 2050[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,14(11). |
APA | Huang, Kangning,Li, Xia,Liu, Xiaoping,&Seto, Karen C..(2019).Projecting global urban land expansion and heat island intensification through 2050.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,14(11). |
MLA | Huang, Kangning,et al."Projecting global urban land expansion and heat island intensification through 2050".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 14.11(2019). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论