Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-017-3835-2 |
GEOS-5 seasonal forecast system | |
Borovikov, Anna1,2; Cullather, Richard1,3; Kovach, Robin1,2; Marshak, Jelena1; Vernieres, Guillaume1,2; Vikhliaev, Yury1,4; Zhao, Bin1,5; Li, Zhao1,2 | |
2019-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 53期号:12页码:7335-7361 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Ensembles of numerical forecasts based on perturbed initial conditions have long been used to improve estimates of both weather and climate forecasts. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5 AOGCM) Seasonal-to-Interannual Forecast System has been used routinely by the GMAO since 2008, the current version since 2012. A coupled reanalysis starting in 1980 provides the initial conditions for the 9-month experimental forecasts. Once a month, sea surface temperature from a suite of 11 ensemble forecasts is contributed to the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) consensus project, which compares and distributes seasonal forecasts of ENSO events. Since June 2013, GEOS-5 forecasts of the Arctic sea-ice distribution were provided to the Sea-Ice Outlook project. The seasonal forecast output data includes surface fields, atmospheric and ocean fields, as well as sea ice thickness and area, and soil moisture variables. The current paper aims to document the characteristics of the GEOS-5 seasonal forecast system and to highlight forecast biases and skills of selected variables (sea surface temperature, air temperature at 2 m, precipitation and sea ice extent) to be used as a benchmark for the future GMAO seasonal forecast systems and to facilitate comparison with other global seasonal forecast systems. |
英文关键词 | Global forecast Seasonal prediction NMME GEOS-5 ENSO Forecast skill |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000495247200014 |
WOS关键词 | SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; GENERAL-CIRCULATION ; BRED VECTORS ; ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE ; ICE PREDICTABILITY ; SOLAR-RADIATION ; CLIMATE MODEL ; PART I ; OCEAN ; PARAMETERIZATION |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/224296 |
专题 | 环境与发展全球科技态势 |
作者单位 | 1.NASA, Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Global Modeling & Assimilat Off, Greenbelt, MD 20771 USA; 2.Sci Syst & Applicat Inc, Lanham, MD 20706 USA; 3.Univ Maryland, Earth Syst Sci Interdisciplinary Ctr, College Pk, MD 20742 USA; 4.Univ Space Res Assoc, Columbia, MD USA; 5.Sci Applicat Int Corp, Mclean, VA USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Borovikov, Anna,Cullather, Richard,Kovach, Robin,et al. GEOS-5 seasonal forecast system[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,53(12):7335-7361. |
APA | Borovikov, Anna.,Cullather, Richard.,Kovach, Robin.,Marshak, Jelena.,Vernieres, Guillaume.,...&Li, Zhao.(2019).GEOS-5 seasonal forecast system.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,53(12),7335-7361. |
MLA | Borovikov, Anna,et al."GEOS-5 seasonal forecast system".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 53.12(2019):7335-7361. |
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