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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-017-3670-5 |
Seasonal forecasts of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble | |
Manganello, Julia V.1; Cash, Benjamin A.1; Hodges, Kevin I.2; Kinter, James L.1,3 | |
2019-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 53期号:12页码:7169-7184 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; England |
英文摘要 | The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)-Phase II models are evaluated in terms of their retrospective seasonal forecast skill of the North Atlantic (NA) tropical cyclone (TC) activity, with a focus on TC frequency. The TC identification and tracking algorithm is modified to accommodate model data at daily resolution. It is also applied to three reanalysis products at the spatial and temporal resolution of the NMME-Phase II ensemble to allow for a more objective estimation of forecast skill. When used with the reanalysis data, the TC tracking generates realistic climatological distributions of the NA TC formation and tracks, and represents the interannual variability of the NA TC frequency quite well. Forecasts with the multi-model ensemble (MME) when initialized in April and later tend to have skill in predicting the NA seasonal TC counts (and TC days). At longer leads, the skill is low or marginal, although one of the models produces skillful forecasts when initialized as early as January and February. At short lead times, while demonstrating the highest skill levels the MME also tends to significantly outperform the individual models and attain skill comparable to the reanalysis. In addition, the short-lead MME forecasts are quite reliable. At regional scales, the skill is rather limited and mostly present in the western tropical NA and the Caribbean Sea. It is found that the overall MME forecast skill is limited by poor representation of the low-frequency variability in the predicted TC frequency, and large fluctuations in skill on decadal time scales. Addressing these deficiencies is thought to increase the value of the NMME ensemble in providing operational guidance. |
英文关键词 | Seasonal forecasts North Atlantic Tropical cyclone frequency North American Multi-Model Ensemble |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000495247200003 |
WOS关键词 | TRACKING |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/224285 |
专题 | 环境与发展全球科技态势 |
作者单位 | 1.GMU, Ctr Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies COLA, 113 Res Hall,Mail Stop 2B3,4400 Univ Dr, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA; 2.Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading, Berks, England; 3.GMU, Fairfax, VA USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Manganello, Julia V.,Cash, Benjamin A.,Hodges, Kevin I.,et al. Seasonal forecasts of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,53(12):7169-7184. |
APA | Manganello, Julia V.,Cash, Benjamin A.,Hodges, Kevin I.,&Kinter, James L..(2019).Seasonal forecasts of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,53(12),7169-7184. |
MLA | Manganello, Julia V.,et al."Seasonal forecasts of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 53.12(2019):7169-7184. |
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