Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2018WR023153 |
On the Causes of Declining Colorado River Streamflows | |
Xiao, Mu1; Udall, Bradley2; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.1 | |
2018-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
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ISSN | 0043-1397 |
EISSN | 1944-7973 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 54期号:9页码:6739-6756 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | The Colorado River is the primary surface water resource in the rapidly growing U.S. Southwest. Over the period 1916-2014, the Upper Colorado River Basin naturalized streamflow declined by 16.5%, despite the fact that annual precipitation in the UCRB over that period increased slightly (+1.4%). In order to examine the causes of the runoff declines, we performed a set of experiments with the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrology model. Our results show that the pervasive warming has reduced snowpacks and enhanced evapotranspiration over the last 100years; over half (53%) of the long-term decreasing runoff trend is associated with the general warming. Negative winter precipitation trends have occurred in the handful of highly productive subbasins that account for over half of the streamflow at Lee's Ferry. We also compared a midcentury drought with the (ongoing) post-Millennium Drought and find that whereas the earlier drought was caused primarily by pervasive low-precipitation anomalies across UCRB, higher temperatures have played a large role in the post-Millennium Drought. The post-Millennium Drought has also been exacerbated by negative precipitation anomalies in several of the most productive headwater basins. Finally, we evaluate the UCRB April-July runoff forecast for 2017, which decreased dramatically as the runoff season progressed. We find that while late winter and spring 2017 was anomalously warm, the proximate cause of most of the forecast reduction was anomalous late winter and early spring dryness in UCRB, which followed exceptionally large (positive) early winter precipitation anomalies. Plain Language Summary As the essential water resource for the Southwest United States, the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) unimpaired streamflow declined by 16.5% over 1916-2014, while annual precipitation increased slightly (+1.4%). We performed a set of experiments with a hydrology model that uses temperature and precipitation as inputs to diagnose the causes of this apparent anomaly. We find that over half (53%) of the decreasing runoff trend is associated with unprecedented basin-wide warming, which has reduced snowpack and increased plant water use. The remaining similar to 47% of the trend is associated mostly with reduced winter precipitation in four highly productive subbasins, all located in Colorado. We compared the 1953-1967 drought with the 2000-2014 Millennium Drought and find that the earlier drought was caused primarily by precipitation declines across the entire UCRB but higher temperatures caused about half of the 2000-2014 flow loss. The Millennium Drought was also caused by precipitation reductions in the four most productive subbasins. We evaluated the UCRB April-July runoff forecast for 2017, which decreased dramatically as the runoff season progressed. The late winter and spring 2017 was anomalously warm, but most of the reduction was due to late season dryness. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000448088100050 |
WOS关键词 | WATER-RESOURCES ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; UNITED-STATES ; PRECIPITATION ; TEMPERATURE ; RUNOFF ; HYDROLOGY ; DROUGHT ; FLUXES |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/21975 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Geog, Los Angeles, CA 90024 USA; 2.Colorado State Univ, Colorado Water Inst, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Xiao, Mu,Udall, Bradley,Lettenmaier, Dennis P.. On the Causes of Declining Colorado River Streamflows[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2018,54(9):6739-6756. |
APA | Xiao, Mu,Udall, Bradley,&Lettenmaier, Dennis P..(2018).On the Causes of Declining Colorado River Streamflows.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,54(9),6739-6756. |
MLA | Xiao, Mu,et al."On the Causes of Declining Colorado River Streamflows".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 54.9(2018):6739-6756. |
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