Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2017WR021245 |
Using Meteorological Analogues for Reordering Postprocessed Precipitation Ensembles in Hydrological Forecasting | |
Bellier, Joseph1; Bontron, Guillaume2; Zin, Isabella1 | |
2017-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH |
ISSN | 0043-1397 |
EISSN | 1944-7973 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 53期号:12 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | France |
英文摘要 | Meteorological ensemble forecasts are nowadays widely used as input of hydrological models for probabilistic streamflow forecasting. These forcings are frequently biased and have to be statistically postprocessed, using most of the time univariate techniques that apply independently to individual locations, lead times and weather variables. Postprocessed ensemble forecasts therefore need to be reordered so as to reconstruct suitable multivariate dependence structures. The Schaake shuffle and ensemble copula coupling are the two most popular methods for this purpose. This paper proposes two adaptations of them that make use of meteorological analogues for reconstructing spatiotemporal dependence structures of precipitation forecasts. Performances of the original and adapted techniques are compared through a multistep verification experiment using real forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. This experiment evaluates not only multivariate precipitation forecasts but also the corresponding streamflow forecasts that derive from hydrological modeling. Results show that the relative performances of the different reordering methods vary depending on the verification step. In particular, the standard Schaake shuffle is found to perform poorly when evaluated on streamflow. This emphasizes the crucial role of the precipitation spatiotemporal dependence structure in hydrological ensemble forecasting. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000423299000006 |
WOS关键词 | PROPER SCORING RULES ; SCHAAKE SHUFFLE ; PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ; WEATHER FORECASTS ; SORTING APPROACH ; VERIFICATION ; TEMPERATURE ; PREDICTION ; FIELDS ; PREDICTABILITY |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/21856 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble INP, CNRS, IRD,IGE, Grenoble, France; 2.Co Natl Rhone, Lyon, France |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Bellier, Joseph,Bontron, Guillaume,Zin, Isabella. Using Meteorological Analogues for Reordering Postprocessed Precipitation Ensembles in Hydrological Forecasting[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2017,53(12). |
APA | Bellier, Joseph,Bontron, Guillaume,&Zin, Isabella.(2017).Using Meteorological Analogues for Reordering Postprocessed Precipitation Ensembles in Hydrological Forecasting.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,53(12). |
MLA | Bellier, Joseph,et al."Using Meteorological Analogues for Reordering Postprocessed Precipitation Ensembles in Hydrological Forecasting".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 53.12(2017). |
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