GSTDTAP  > 资源环境科学
DOI10.1002/2017WR021245
Using Meteorological Analogues for Reordering Postprocessed Precipitation Ensembles in Hydrological Forecasting
Bellier, Joseph1; Bontron, Guillaume2; Zin, Isabella1
2017-12-01
发表期刊WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
ISSN0043-1397
EISSN1944-7973
出版年2017
卷号53期号:12
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家France
英文摘要

Meteorological ensemble forecasts are nowadays widely used as input of hydrological models for probabilistic streamflow forecasting. These forcings are frequently biased and have to be statistically postprocessed, using most of the time univariate techniques that apply independently to individual locations, lead times and weather variables. Postprocessed ensemble forecasts therefore need to be reordered so as to reconstruct suitable multivariate dependence structures. The Schaake shuffle and ensemble copula coupling are the two most popular methods for this purpose. This paper proposes two adaptations of them that make use of meteorological analogues for reconstructing spatiotemporal dependence structures of precipitation forecasts. Performances of the original and adapted techniques are compared through a multistep verification experiment using real forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. This experiment evaluates not only multivariate precipitation forecasts but also the corresponding streamflow forecasts that derive from hydrological modeling. Results show that the relative performances of the different reordering methods vary depending on the verification step. In particular, the standard Schaake shuffle is found to perform poorly when evaluated on streamflow. This emphasizes the crucial role of the precipitation spatiotemporal dependence structure in hydrological ensemble forecasting.


领域资源环境
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000423299000006
WOS关键词PROPER SCORING RULES ; SCHAAKE SHUFFLE ; PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ; WEATHER FORECASTS ; SORTING APPROACH ; VERIFICATION ; TEMPERATURE ; PREDICTION ; FIELDS ; PREDICTABILITY
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/21856
专题资源环境科学
作者单位1.Univ Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble INP, CNRS, IRD,IGE, Grenoble, France;
2.Co Natl Rhone, Lyon, France
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GB/T 7714
Bellier, Joseph,Bontron, Guillaume,Zin, Isabella. Using Meteorological Analogues for Reordering Postprocessed Precipitation Ensembles in Hydrological Forecasting[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2017,53(12).
APA Bellier, Joseph,Bontron, Guillaume,&Zin, Isabella.(2017).Using Meteorological Analogues for Reordering Postprocessed Precipitation Ensembles in Hydrological Forecasting.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,53(12).
MLA Bellier, Joseph,et al."Using Meteorological Analogues for Reordering Postprocessed Precipitation Ensembles in Hydrological Forecasting".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 53.12(2017).
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