GSTDTAP  > 资源环境科学
DOI10.1002/2016WR019959
Reducing uncertainty with flood frequency analysis: The contribution of paleoflood and historical flood information
Lam, Daryl1; Thompson, Chris1; Croke, Jacky1,2; Sharma, Ashneel2; Macklin, Mark3,4,5
2017-03-01
发表期刊WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
ISSN0043-1397
EISSN1944-7973
出版年2017
卷号53期号:3
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Australia; England; New Zealand
英文摘要

Using a combination of stream gauge, historical, and paleoflood records to extend extreme flood records has proven to be useful in improving flood frequency analysis (FFA). The approach has typically been applied in localities with long historical records and/or suitable river settings for paleoflood reconstruction from slack-water deposits (SWDs). However, many regions around the world have neither extensive historical information nor bedrock gorges suitable for SWDs preservation and paleoflood reconstruction. This study from subtropical Australia demonstrates that confined, semialluvial channels such as macrochannels provide relatively stable boundaries over the 1000-2000 year time period and the preserved SWDs enabled paleoflood reconstruction and their incorporation into FFA. FFA for three sites in subtropical Australia with the integration of historical and paleoflood data using Bayesian Inference methods showed a significant reduction in uncertainty associated with the estimated discharge of a flood quantile. Uncertainty associated with estimated discharge for the 1% Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) flood is reduced by more than 50%. In addition, sensitivity analysis of possible within-channel boundary changes shows that FFA is not significantly affected by any associated changes in channel capacity. Therefore, a greater range of channel types may be used for reliable paleoflood reconstruction by evaluating the stability of inset alluvial units, thereby increasing the quantity of temporal data available for FFA. The reduction in uncertainty, particularly in the prediction of the 1% AEP design flood, will improve flood risk planning and management in regions with limited temporal flood data.


英文关键词flood frequency analysis paleoflood hydrology extreme flood stable boundary channels historical flood information sensitivity analysis
领域资源环境
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000400160500032
WOS关键词SLACKWATER DEPOSITS ; HYDROLOGY ; RIVER ; CLIMATE ; SINGLE ; GORGE ; STATIONARITY ; VARIABILITY ; DISCHARGES ; QUEENSLAND
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/21548
专题资源环境科学
作者单位1.Univ Queensland, Sch Geog Planning Environm Management, Brisbane, Qld, Australia;
2.Queensland Govt, Dept Sci Informat Technol & Innovat, Brisbane, Qld, Australia;
3.Univ Lincoln, Sch Geog, Lincoln, England;
4.Univ Lincoln, Lincoln Ctr Water & Planetary Hlth, Lincoln, England;
5.Massey Univ, Inst Agr & Environm, Innovat River Solut, Palmerston North, New Zealand
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Lam, Daryl,Thompson, Chris,Croke, Jacky,et al. Reducing uncertainty with flood frequency analysis: The contribution of paleoflood and historical flood information[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2017,53(3).
APA Lam, Daryl,Thompson, Chris,Croke, Jacky,Sharma, Ashneel,&Macklin, Mark.(2017).Reducing uncertainty with flood frequency analysis: The contribution of paleoflood and historical flood information.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,53(3).
MLA Lam, Daryl,et al."Reducing uncertainty with flood frequency analysis: The contribution of paleoflood and historical flood information".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 53.3(2017).
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