Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2016WR019959 |
Reducing uncertainty with flood frequency analysis: The contribution of paleoflood and historical flood information | |
Lam, Daryl1; Thompson, Chris1; Croke, Jacky1,2; Sharma, Ashneel2; Macklin, Mark3,4,5 | |
2017-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
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ISSN | 0043-1397 |
EISSN | 1944-7973 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 53期号:3 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia; England; New Zealand |
英文摘要 | Using a combination of stream gauge, historical, and paleoflood records to extend extreme flood records has proven to be useful in improving flood frequency analysis (FFA). The approach has typically been applied in localities with long historical records and/or suitable river settings for paleoflood reconstruction from slack-water deposits (SWDs). However, many regions around the world have neither extensive historical information nor bedrock gorges suitable for SWDs preservation and paleoflood reconstruction. This study from subtropical Australia demonstrates that confined, semialluvial channels such as macrochannels provide relatively stable boundaries over the 1000-2000 year time period and the preserved SWDs enabled paleoflood reconstruction and their incorporation into FFA. FFA for three sites in subtropical Australia with the integration of historical and paleoflood data using Bayesian Inference methods showed a significant reduction in uncertainty associated with the estimated discharge of a flood quantile. Uncertainty associated with estimated discharge for the 1% Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) flood is reduced by more than 50%. In addition, sensitivity analysis of possible within-channel boundary changes shows that FFA is not significantly affected by any associated changes in channel capacity. Therefore, a greater range of channel types may be used for reliable paleoflood reconstruction by evaluating the stability of inset alluvial units, thereby increasing the quantity of temporal data available for FFA. The reduction in uncertainty, particularly in the prediction of the 1% AEP design flood, will improve flood risk planning and management in regions with limited temporal flood data. |
英文关键词 | flood frequency analysis paleoflood hydrology extreme flood stable boundary channels historical flood information sensitivity analysis |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000400160500032 |
WOS关键词 | SLACKWATER DEPOSITS ; HYDROLOGY ; RIVER ; CLIMATE ; SINGLE ; GORGE ; STATIONARITY ; VARIABILITY ; DISCHARGES ; QUEENSLAND |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/21548 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Queensland, Sch Geog Planning Environm Management, Brisbane, Qld, Australia; 2.Queensland Govt, Dept Sci Informat Technol & Innovat, Brisbane, Qld, Australia; 3.Univ Lincoln, Sch Geog, Lincoln, England; 4.Univ Lincoln, Lincoln Ctr Water & Planetary Hlth, Lincoln, England; 5.Massey Univ, Inst Agr & Environm, Innovat River Solut, Palmerston North, New Zealand |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lam, Daryl,Thompson, Chris,Croke, Jacky,et al. Reducing uncertainty with flood frequency analysis: The contribution of paleoflood and historical flood information[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2017,53(3). |
APA | Lam, Daryl,Thompson, Chris,Croke, Jacky,Sharma, Ashneel,&Macklin, Mark.(2017).Reducing uncertainty with flood frequency analysis: The contribution of paleoflood and historical flood information.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,53(3). |
MLA | Lam, Daryl,et al."Reducing uncertainty with flood frequency analysis: The contribution of paleoflood and historical flood information".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 53.3(2017). |
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