PREEVENTS Track 2: Collaborative Research: COEXIST: COnnected EXtremes In Space and Time

GSTDTAP

项目编号	1854761
	PREEVENTS Track 2: Collaborative Research: COEXIST: COnnected EXtremes In Space and Time
	Daniel Swain (Principal Investigator)
主持机构	University of California-Los Angeles
项目开始年	2019
	2019-06-01
项目结束日期	2022-05-31
资助机构	US-NSF
项目类别	Continuing grant
项目经费	107188(USD)
国家	美国
语种	英语
英文摘要	The project goal is to improve our ability to withstand extreme floods and droughts. A single flood or drought event can cause problems, yet the devastation wrought by a series of back-to-back floods or dramatic swings between drought and flood conditions can be much worse. California, for example, is all too familiar with dangerous mudslides triggered by flash flooding on top of burn scars left over from prior drought conditions. The central U.S. is also no stranger to back-to-back expansive flooding episodes that drive destructive surges down the major rivers. These grouped events seriously test our ability to manage flood and drought and ensure protection of lives and property. Scientists do not fully understand the weather conditions that cause these grouped events. Nor do they know how good we are at forecasting them 2 weeks to 2 months in advance. Experts from insurance, reservoir design and emergency responders will gather with scientists to identify how these grouped events cause problems. This knowledge will then be used to craft the research necessary to support solutions. New scientific discoveries are anticipated about what causes floods and droughts to group together across the U.S. This new knowledge will then be used to develop ways to forecasts these grouped events 2 weeks to 2 months in advance. These new forecasting approaches will support our ability to prepare and reduce impacts. Through supporting enhanced protection of lives and livelihoods this project ultimately strengthens our national welfare and economic competitiveness. In addition to new science and better forecasts the project has a number of other potential benefits. The integration of research and education is central to the project, and will be achieved through the training and career development of the project team and one graduate student. The project is also committed to diversity and inclusion. Participation of underrepresented groups will be broadened through the mentoring of students underrepresented in science each summer. To promote additional scientific research the project will adhere to, and promote, best practices in open, accessible and reproducible science. The project will also engage non-scientists through a series of media interviews, newspaper/TV appearances, and science writing regarding the special risks to humans and environment posed by connected floods and droughts, and strategies to reduce their impacts. The work is structured around three objectives: 1) Identify potentially connective regimes and formulate hypotheses about the underlying shared processes by applying statistical models to observation-based datasets of U.S. extreme wet and dry events; 2) Advance the hypotheses by conducting a targeted suite of multi-scale dynamical model experiments for at least six instances of connected events; 3) Understand shared predictability sources by developing and testing a suite of prototype sub-seasonal to seasonal statistical-dynamical forecast systems. Potential contributions include understanding the shared physical processes connecting extreme wet and dry events, demonstrating extended forecast capacity for wet and dry extremes using forecast systems that emphasize connecting processes, and transforming how scientists conceptualize extreme events. Key project outcomes include a physical-process based definition of connected extremes, and a novel generalized research framework that co-advances shared-process understanding and forecast capacity. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.
文献类型	项目
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/213377
专题	环境与发展全球科技态势
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Daniel Swain .PREEVENTS Track 2: Collaborative Research: COEXIST: COnnected EXtremes In Space and Time.2019.