Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0642.1 |
Reforecasting the ENSO Events in the Past 57 Years (1958-2014) | |
Huang, Bohua1,2; Shin, Chul-Su1,2; Shukla, J.1,2; Marx, Lawrence1,2; Balmaseda, Magdalena A.3; Halder, Subhadeep1,2,4; Dirmeyer, Paul1,2; Kinter, James L., III1,2 | |
2017-10-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
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ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 30期号:19 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; England; India |
英文摘要 | A set of ensemble seasonal reforecasts for 1958-2014 is conducted using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2. In comparison with other current reforecasts, this dataset extends the seasonal reforecasts to the 1960s-70s. Direct comparison of the predictability of the ENSO events occurring during the 1960s-70s with the more widely studied ENSO events since then demonstrates the seasonal forecast system's capability in different phases of multidecadal variability and degrees of global climate change. A major concern for a long reforecast is whether the seasonal reforecasts before 1979 provide useful skill when observations, particularly of the ocean, were sparser. This study demonstrates that, although the reforecasts have lower skill in predicting SST anomalies in the North Pacific and North Atlantic before 1979, the prediction skill of the onset and development of ENSO events in 1958-78 is comparable to that for 1979-2014. In particular, the ENSO predictions initialized in April during 1958-78 show higher skill in the summer. However, the skill of the earlier predictions declines faster in the ENSO decaying phase, because the reforecasts initialized after boreal summer persistently predict lingering wind and SST anomalies over the eastern equatorial Pacific during such events. Reforecasts initialized in boreal fall overestimate the peak SST anomalies of strong El Nino events since the 1980s. Both phenomena imply that the model's air-sea feedback is overly active in the eastern Pacific before ENSO event termination. Whether these differences are due to changes in the observing system or are associated with flow-dependent predictability remains an open question. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000411436700005 |
WOS关键词 | SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN VARIATIONS ; DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEM ; CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM ; WARM WATER VOLUME ; EL-NINO ; EQUATORIAL PACIFIC ; LA-NINA ; THERMOCLINE DEPTH ; TROPICAL PACIFIC |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20968 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.George Mason Univ, Coll Sci, Dept Atmospher Ocean & Earth Sci, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA; 2.George Mason Univ, Ctr Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA; 3.European Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, Berks, England; 4.Univ Allahabad, K Banerjee Ctr Atmospher & Ocean Studies, Allahabad, Uttar Pradesh, India |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Huang, Bohua,Shin, Chul-Su,Shukla, J.,et al. Reforecasting the ENSO Events in the Past 57 Years (1958-2014)[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(19). |
APA | Huang, Bohua.,Shin, Chul-Su.,Shukla, J..,Marx, Lawrence.,Balmaseda, Magdalena A..,...&Kinter, James L., III.(2017).Reforecasting the ENSO Events in the Past 57 Years (1958-2014).JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,30(19). |
MLA | Huang, Bohua,et al."Reforecasting the ENSO Events in the Past 57 Years (1958-2014)".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30.19(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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