Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1073/pnas.1707603114 |
Increasing potential for intense tropical and subtropical thunderstorms under global warming | |
Singh, Martin S.1; Kuang, Zhiming2; Maloney, Eric D.3; Hannah, Walter M.4; Wolding, Brandon O.3 | |
2017-10-01 | |
发表期刊 | PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA |
ISSN | 0027-8424 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 114期号:44页码:11657-11662 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia; USA |
英文摘要 | Intense thunderstorms produce rapid cloud updrafts and may be associated with a range of destructive weather events. An important ingredient in measures of the potential for intense thunder storms is the convective available potential energy (CAPE). Climate models project increases in summertime mean CAPE in the tropics and subtropics in response to global warming, but the physical mechanisms responsible for such increases and the implications for future thunderstorm activity remain uncertain. Here, we show that high percentiles of the CAPE distribution (CAPE extremes) also increase robustly with warming across the tropics and subtropics in an ensemble of state-of-the-art climate models, implying strong increases in the frequency of occurrence of environments conducive to intense thunderstorms in future climate projections. The increase in CAPE extremes is consistent with a recently proposed theoretical model in which CAPE depends on the influence of convective entrainment on the tropospheric lapse rate, and we demonstrate the importance of this influence for simulated CAPE extremes using a climate model in which the convective entrainment rate is varied. We further show that the theoretical model is able to account for the climatological relation ship between CAPE and a measure of lower-tropospheric humidity in simulations and in observations. Our results provide a physical basis on which to understand projected future increases in intense thunderstorm potential, and they suggest that an important mechanism that contributes to such increases may be present in Earth's atmosphere. |
英文关键词 | severe weather intense thunderstorms CAPE climate change tropical atmosphere |
领域 | 地球科学 ; 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000414127400053 |
WOS关键词 | MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION ; VERTICAL VELOCITY ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; ARAKAWA-SCHUBERT ; CLOUD ; PRECIPITATION ; CONVECTION ; ENVIRONMENTS ; PARAMETERIZATION ; MODEL |
WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/204812 |
专题 | 地球科学 资源环境科学 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Monash Univ, Sch Earth Atmosphere & Environm, Clayton, Vic 3800, Australia; 2.Harvard Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, 20 Oxford St, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA; 3.Colorado State Univ, Dept Atmospher Sci, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA; 4.Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, Livermore, CA 94550 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Singh, Martin S.,Kuang, Zhiming,Maloney, Eric D.,et al. Increasing potential for intense tropical and subtropical thunderstorms under global warming[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2017,114(44):11657-11662. |
APA | Singh, Martin S.,Kuang, Zhiming,Maloney, Eric D.,Hannah, Walter M.,&Wolding, Brandon O..(2017).Increasing potential for intense tropical and subtropical thunderstorms under global warming.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,114(44),11657-11662. |
MLA | Singh, Martin S.,et al."Increasing potential for intense tropical and subtropical thunderstorms under global warming".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 114.44(2017):11657-11662. |
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