Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0766.1 |
Skill of Seasonal Arctic Sea Ice Extent Predictions Using the North American Multimodel Ensemble | |
Harnos, K. J.1; 39;Heureux, M.2 | |
2019 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
![]() |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 32期号:2页码:623-638 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Previous studies have outlined benefits of using multiple model platforms to make seasonal climate predictions. Here, reforecasts from five models included in the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) project are utilized to determine skill in predicting Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) during 1982-2010. Overall, relative to the individual models, the multimodel average results in generally smaller biases and better correlations for predictions of total SIE and year-to-year (Y2Y), linearly, and quadratically detrended variability. Also notable is the increase in error for NMME predictions of total September SIE during the mid-1990s through 2000s. After 2000, observed September SIE is characterized by more significant negative trends and increased Y2Y variance, which suggests that recent sea ice loss is resulting in larger prediction errors. While this tendency is concerning, due to the possibility of models not accurately representing the changing trends in sea ice, the multimodel approach still shows promise in providing more skillful predictions of Arctic SIE over any individual model. |
英文关键词 | Sea ice Climate prediction Climate prediction Numerical weather prediction forecasting |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000454762300001 |
WOS关键词 | THICKNESS INITIALIZATION ; INTERNAL VARIABILITY ; FORECAST SKILL ; PREDICTABILITY |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20477 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.NOAA, Climate Predict Ctr, College Pk, MD 20740 USA; 2.Innovim LLC, Greenbelt, MD 20770 USA; 3.Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Dept Geog, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA; 4.Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Earth Res Inst, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Harnos, K. J.,39;Heureux, M.. Skill of Seasonal Arctic Sea Ice Extent Predictions Using the North American Multimodel Ensemble[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2019,32(2):623-638. |
APA | Harnos, K. J.,&39;Heureux, M..(2019).Skill of Seasonal Arctic Sea Ice Extent Predictions Using the North American Multimodel Ensemble.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,32(2),623-638. |
MLA | Harnos, K. J.,et al."Skill of Seasonal Arctic Sea Ice Extent Predictions Using the North American Multimodel Ensemble".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 32.2(2019):623-638. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论