GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0747.1
Phase Changes and Seasonal Warming in Early Instrumental Temperature Records
Hillebrand, Eric1,2; Proietti, Tommaso3
2017-09-01
发表期刊JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
ISSN0894-8755
EISSN1520-0442
出版年2017
卷号30期号:17
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Denmark; Italy
英文摘要

Phase analyses of the annual cycle of monthly temperature time series that date back to the eighteenth century show trending behavior that has been difficult to interpret. Negative trends in the estimated phase have been identified with precession of Earth's axis of rotation, but the implied later onset of seasons is at odds with recent satellite measurements and with the phenological record. Positive trends in the phase and the occurrence of trends of both signs in temperature time series from geographically nearby locations have remained mysterious. This paper shows that there is a mathematical equivalence between trends in phases and seasonally differing warming trends, in particular more intense warming in winters than in summers. Using temperature time series from 16 Northern Hemispheric locations reaching back to the eighteenth century and a statistical model that can estimate the seasonal warming trends, the authors reject the hypothesis that the timing of the seasons in these locations is jointly driven by precession.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000407276600012
WOS关键词CENTRAL ENGLAND TEMPERATURES ; SURFACE-TEMPERATURE ; CLIMATE RECORD ; CYCLE ; MODEL ; ATMOSPHERE ; SERIES ; BIAS ; CO2
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20375
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Aarhus Univ, Aarhus, Denmark;
2.Ctr Res Econometr Anal Time Series, Aarhus, Denmark;
3.Univ Roma Tor Vergata, Dept Econ & Finance, Rome, Italy
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Hillebrand, Eric,Proietti, Tommaso. Phase Changes and Seasonal Warming in Early Instrumental Temperature Records[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(17).
APA Hillebrand, Eric,&Proietti, Tommaso.(2017).Phase Changes and Seasonal Warming in Early Instrumental Temperature Records.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,30(17).
MLA Hillebrand, Eric,et al."Phase Changes and Seasonal Warming in Early Instrumental Temperature Records".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30.17(2017).
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