Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2017WR021044 |
Predictive performance of rainfall thresholds for shallow landslides in Switzerland from gridded daily data | |
Leonarduzzi, Elena1,2; Molnar, Peter1; McArdell, Brian W.2 | |
2017-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
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ISSN | 0043-1397 |
EISSN | 1944-7973 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 53期号:8 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Switzerland |
英文摘要 | A high-resolution gridded daily precipitation data set was combined with a landslide inventory containing over 2000 events in the period 1972-2012 to analyze rainfall thresholds which lead to landsliding in Switzerland. We colocated triggering rainfall to landslides, developed distributions of triggering and nontriggering rainfall event properties, and determined rainfall thresholds and intensity-duration ID curves and validated their performance. The best predictive performance was obtained by the intensity-duration ID threshold curve, followed by peak daily intensity I-max and mean event intensity I-mean. Event duration by itself had very low predictive power. A single country-wide threshold of I-max=28 mm/d was extended into space by regionalization based on surface erodibility and local climate (mean daily precipitation). It was found that wetter local climate and lower erodibility led to significantly higher rainfall thresholds required to trigger landslides. However, we showed that the improvement in model performance due to regionalization was marginal and much lower than what can be achieved by having a high-quality landslide database. Reference cases in which the landslide locations and timing were randomized and the landslide sample size was reduced showed the sensitivity of the I-max rainfall threshold model. Jack-knife and cross-validation experiments demonstrated that the model was robust. The results reported here highlight the potential of using rainfall ID threshold curves and rainfall threshold values for predicting the occurrence of landslides on a country or regional scale with possible applications in landslide warning systems, even with daily data. |
英文关键词 | rainfall-induced landslides precipitation thresholds ROC statistics local thresholds validation |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000411202000016 |
WOS关键词 | FLOWS-TRIGGERING RAINFALL ; DEBRIS FLOWS ; DURATION CONTROL ; INITIATION ; DEFINITION ; INTENSITY ; ALPS ; IDENTIFICATION ; PRECIPITATION ; VALIDATION |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20136 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Environm Engn, Zurich, Switzerland; 2.Swiss Fed Inst Forest Snow & Landscape Res WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Leonarduzzi, Elena,Molnar, Peter,McArdell, Brian W.. Predictive performance of rainfall thresholds for shallow landslides in Switzerland from gridded daily data[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2017,53(8). |
APA | Leonarduzzi, Elena,Molnar, Peter,&McArdell, Brian W..(2017).Predictive performance of rainfall thresholds for shallow landslides in Switzerland from gridded daily data.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,53(8). |
MLA | Leonarduzzi, Elena,et al."Predictive performance of rainfall thresholds for shallow landslides in Switzerland from gridded daily data".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 53.8(2017). |
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