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DOI10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0813.1
Climate Model Assessment of Changes in Winter-Spring Streamflow Timing over North America
Kam, Jonghun1; Knutson, Thomas R.2; Milly, P. C. D.2,3
2018-07-01
发表期刊JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
ISSN0894-8755
EISSN1520-0442
出版年2018
卷号31期号:14页码:5581-5593
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

Over regions where snowmelt runoff substantially contributes to winter-spring streamflows, warming can accelerate snowmelt and reduce dry-season streamflows. However, conclusive detection of changes and attribution to anthropogenic forcing is hindered by the brevity of observational records, model uncertainty, and uncertainty concerning internal variability. In this study, the detection/attribution of changes in midlatitude North American winter-spring streamflow timing is examined using nine global climate models under multiple forcing scenarios. Robustness across models, start/end dates for trends, and assumptions about internal variability are evaluated. Marginal evidence for an emerging detectable anthropogenic influence (according to four or five of nine models) is found in the north-central United States, where winter-spring streamflows have been starting earlier. Weaker indications of detectable anthropogenic influence (three of nine models) are found in the mountainous western United States/southwestern Canada and in the extreme northeastern United States/Canadian Maritimes. In the former region, a recent shift toward later streamflows has rendered the full-record trend toward earlier streamflows only marginally significant, with possible implications for previously published climate change detection findings for streamflow timing in this region. In the latter region, no forced model shows as large a shift toward earlier streamflow timing as the detectable observed shift. In other (including warm, snow free) regions, observed trends are typically not detectable, although in the U.S. central plains we find detectable delays in streamflow, which are inconsistent with forced model experiments.


英文关键词Hydrology Model comparison Model evaluation performance Trends Anthropogenic effects
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000435537300002
WOS关键词WESTERN UNITED-STATES ; RIVER ; RUNOFF
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/19909
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Univ Alabama, Dept Civil Construct & Environm Engn, Tuscaloosa, AL 35487 USA;
2.NOAA, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ USA;
3.US Geol Survey, Princeton, NJ USA
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GB/T 7714
Kam, Jonghun,Knutson, Thomas R.,Milly, P. C. D.. Climate Model Assessment of Changes in Winter-Spring Streamflow Timing over North America[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(14):5581-5593.
APA Kam, Jonghun,Knutson, Thomas R.,&Milly, P. C. D..(2018).Climate Model Assessment of Changes in Winter-Spring Streamflow Timing over North America.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(14),5581-5593.
MLA Kam, Jonghun,et al."Climate Model Assessment of Changes in Winter-Spring Streamflow Timing over North America".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.14(2018):5581-5593.
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