Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0813.1 |
Climate Model Assessment of Changes in Winter-Spring Streamflow Timing over North America | |
Kam, Jonghun1; Knutson, Thomas R.2; Milly, P. C. D.2,3 | |
2018-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
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ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 31期号:14页码:5581-5593 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Over regions where snowmelt runoff substantially contributes to winter-spring streamflows, warming can accelerate snowmelt and reduce dry-season streamflows. However, conclusive detection of changes and attribution to anthropogenic forcing is hindered by the brevity of observational records, model uncertainty, and uncertainty concerning internal variability. In this study, the detection/attribution of changes in midlatitude North American winter-spring streamflow timing is examined using nine global climate models under multiple forcing scenarios. Robustness across models, start/end dates for trends, and assumptions about internal variability are evaluated. Marginal evidence for an emerging detectable anthropogenic influence (according to four or five of nine models) is found in the north-central United States, where winter-spring streamflows have been starting earlier. Weaker indications of detectable anthropogenic influence (three of nine models) are found in the mountainous western United States/southwestern Canada and in the extreme northeastern United States/Canadian Maritimes. In the former region, a recent shift toward later streamflows has rendered the full-record trend toward earlier streamflows only marginally significant, with possible implications for previously published climate change detection findings for streamflow timing in this region. In the latter region, no forced model shows as large a shift toward earlier streamflow timing as the detectable observed shift. In other (including warm, snow free) regions, observed trends are typically not detectable, although in the U.S. central plains we find detectable delays in streamflow, which are inconsistent with forced model experiments. |
英文关键词 | Hydrology Model comparison Model evaluation performance Trends Anthropogenic effects |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000435537300002 |
WOS关键词 | WESTERN UNITED-STATES ; RIVER ; RUNOFF |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/19909 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Alabama, Dept Civil Construct & Environm Engn, Tuscaloosa, AL 35487 USA; 2.NOAA, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ USA; 3.US Geol Survey, Princeton, NJ USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kam, Jonghun,Knutson, Thomas R.,Milly, P. C. D.. Climate Model Assessment of Changes in Winter-Spring Streamflow Timing over North America[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(14):5581-5593. |
APA | Kam, Jonghun,Knutson, Thomas R.,&Milly, P. C. D..(2018).Climate Model Assessment of Changes in Winter-Spring Streamflow Timing over North America.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(14),5581-5593. |
MLA | Kam, Jonghun,et al."Climate Model Assessment of Changes in Winter-Spring Streamflow Timing over North America".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.14(2018):5581-5593. |
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