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DOI10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0634.1
Potential Predictability during a Madden-Julian Oscillation Event
Jones, Charles1,2; Dudhia, Jimy3
2017-07-01
发表期刊JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
ISSN0894-8755
EISSN1520-0442
出版年2017
卷号30期号:14
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is an important source of predictability. The boreal 2004/05 winter is used as a case study to conduct predictability experiments with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. That winter season was characterized by an MJO event, weak El Nino, strong North Atlantic Oscillation, and extremely wet conditions over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The issues investigated are as follows: 1) growth of forecast errors in the tropics relative to the extratropics, 2) propagation of forecast errors from the tropics to the extratropics, 3) forecast error growth on spatial scales associated with MJO and non-MJO variability, and 4) the relative importance of MJO and non-MJO tropical variability on predictability of precipitation over CONUS.


Root-mean-square errors in forecasts of normalized eddy kinetic energy (NEKE) (200 hPa) show that errors in initial conditions in the tropics grow faster than in the extratropics. Potential predictability extends out to about 4 days in the tropics and 9 days in the extratropics. Forecast errors in the tropics quickly propagate to the extratropics, as demonstrated by experiments in which initial conditions are only perturbed in the tropics. Forecast errors in NEKE (200 hPa) on scales related to the MJO grow slower than in non-MJO variability over localized areas in the tropics and short lead times. Potential predictability of precipitation extends to 1-5 days over most of CONUS but to longer leads (7-12 days) over regions with orographic precipitation in California. Errors in initial conditions on small scales relative to the MJO quickly grow, propagate to the extratropics, and degrade forecast skill of precipitation.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000404018600012
WOS关键词INTRASEASONAL VARIABILITY ; UNDERSTANDING ADVANCES ; EXTREME PRECIPITATION ; PREDICTION SKILL ; PART I ; MJO ; FORECAST ; CIRCULATION ; ECMWF ; SIMULATION
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/19796
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Dept Geog, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA;
2.Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Earth Res Inst, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA;
3.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA
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GB/T 7714
Jones, Charles,Dudhia, Jimy. Potential Predictability during a Madden-Julian Oscillation Event[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(14).
APA Jones, Charles,&Dudhia, Jimy.(2017).Potential Predictability during a Madden-Julian Oscillation Event.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,30(14).
MLA Jones, Charles,et al."Potential Predictability during a Madden-Julian Oscillation Event".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30.14(2017).
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