Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0634.1 |
Potential Predictability during a Madden-Julian Oscillation Event | |
Jones, Charles1,2; Dudhia, Jimy3 | |
2017-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 30期号:14 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is an important source of predictability. The boreal 2004/05 winter is used as a case study to conduct predictability experiments with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. That winter season was characterized by an MJO event, weak El Nino, strong North Atlantic Oscillation, and extremely wet conditions over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The issues investigated are as follows: 1) growth of forecast errors in the tropics relative to the extratropics, 2) propagation of forecast errors from the tropics to the extratropics, 3) forecast error growth on spatial scales associated with MJO and non-MJO variability, and 4) the relative importance of MJO and non-MJO tropical variability on predictability of precipitation over CONUS. Root-mean-square errors in forecasts of normalized eddy kinetic energy (NEKE) (200 hPa) show that errors in initial conditions in the tropics grow faster than in the extratropics. Potential predictability extends out to about 4 days in the tropics and 9 days in the extratropics. Forecast errors in the tropics quickly propagate to the extratropics, as demonstrated by experiments in which initial conditions are only perturbed in the tropics. Forecast errors in NEKE (200 hPa) on scales related to the MJO grow slower than in non-MJO variability over localized areas in the tropics and short lead times. Potential predictability of precipitation extends to 1-5 days over most of CONUS but to longer leads (7-12 days) over regions with orographic precipitation in California. Errors in initial conditions on small scales relative to the MJO quickly grow, propagate to the extratropics, and degrade forecast skill of precipitation. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000404018600012 |
WOS关键词 | INTRASEASONAL VARIABILITY ; UNDERSTANDING ADVANCES ; EXTREME PRECIPITATION ; PREDICTION SKILL ; PART I ; MJO ; FORECAST ; CIRCULATION ; ECMWF ; SIMULATION |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/19796 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Dept Geog, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA; 2.Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Earth Res Inst, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA; 3.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jones, Charles,Dudhia, Jimy. Potential Predictability during a Madden-Julian Oscillation Event[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(14). |
APA | Jones, Charles,&Dudhia, Jimy.(2017).Potential Predictability during a Madden-Julian Oscillation Event.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,30(14). |
MLA | Jones, Charles,et al."Potential Predictability during a Madden-Julian Oscillation Event".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30.14(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
个性服务 |
推荐该条目 |
保存到收藏夹 |
查看访问统计 |
导出为Endnote文件 |
谷歌学术 |
谷歌学术中相似的文章 |
[Jones, Charles]的文章 |
[Dudhia, Jimy]的文章 |
百度学术 |
百度学术中相似的文章 |
[Jones, Charles]的文章 |
[Dudhia, Jimy]的文章 |
必应学术 |
必应学术中相似的文章 |
[Jones, Charles]的文章 |
[Dudhia, Jimy]的文章 |
相关权益政策 |
暂无数据 |
收藏/分享 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论