GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0373.1
Time-Varying Response of ENSO-Induced Tropical Pacific Rainfall to Global Warming in CMIP5 Models. Part II: Intermodel Uncertainty
Huang, Ping1,2,3
2017
发表期刊JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
ISSN0894-8755
EISSN1520-0442
出版年2017
卷号30期号:2
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Peoples R China
英文摘要

Anomalous rainfall in the tropical Pacific driven by El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a crucial pathway of ENSO's global impacts. The changes in ENSO rainfall under global warming vary among the models, even though previous studies have shown that many models project that ENSO rainfall will likely intensify and shift eastward in response to global warming. The present study evaluates the robustness of the changes in ENSO rainfall in 32 CMIP5 models forced under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. The robust increase in mean-state moisture dominates the robust intensification of ENSO rainfall. The uncertain amplitude changes in ENSO-related SST variability are the largest source of the uncertainty in ENSO rainfall changes through influencing the amplitude changes in ENSO-driven circulation variability, whereas the structural changes in ENSO SST and ENSO circulation enhancement in the central Pacific are more robust than the amplitude changes. The spatial pattern of the mean-state SST changes-the departure of local SST changes from the tropical mean-with an El Nino-like pattern is a relatively robust factor, although it also contains pronounced intermodel differences. The intermodel spread of historical ENSO circulation is another noteworthy source of the uncertainty in ENSO rainfall changes. The intermodel standard deviation of ENSO rainfall changes increases along with the increase in global-mean surface temperature. However, the robustness of enhanced ENSO rainfall changes in the central-eastern Pacific is almost unchanged, whereas the eastward shift of ENSO rainfall is increasingly robust along with the increase in global-mean surface temperature.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000391856300011
WOS关键词SURFACE TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY ; EL-NINO TELECONNECTIONS ; EQUATORIAL PACIFIC ; PRECIPITATION RESPONSE ; HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE ; ATMOSPHERIC BRIDGE ; LA-NINA ; CLIMATE ; OCEAN ; SST
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/19769
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Phys Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Ctr Monsoon Syst Res, Beijing, Peoples R China;
2.Phys Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, LASG, Beijing, Peoples R China;
3.Joint Ctr Global Change Studies, Beijing, Peoples R China
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GB/T 7714
Huang, Ping. Time-Varying Response of ENSO-Induced Tropical Pacific Rainfall to Global Warming in CMIP5 Models. Part II: Intermodel Uncertainty[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(2).
APA Huang, Ping.(2017).Time-Varying Response of ENSO-Induced Tropical Pacific Rainfall to Global Warming in CMIP5 Models. Part II: Intermodel Uncertainty.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,30(2).
MLA Huang, Ping."Time-Varying Response of ENSO-Induced Tropical Pacific Rainfall to Global Warming in CMIP5 Models. Part II: Intermodel Uncertainty".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30.2(2017).
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