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DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0373.1 |
Time-Varying Response of ENSO-Induced Tropical Pacific Rainfall to Global Warming in CMIP5 Models. Part II: Intermodel Uncertainty | |
Huang, Ping1,2,3 | |
2017 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
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ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 30期号:2 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | Anomalous rainfall in the tropical Pacific driven by El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a crucial pathway of ENSO's global impacts. The changes in ENSO rainfall under global warming vary among the models, even though previous studies have shown that many models project that ENSO rainfall will likely intensify and shift eastward in response to global warming. The present study evaluates the robustness of the changes in ENSO rainfall in 32 CMIP5 models forced under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. The robust increase in mean-state moisture dominates the robust intensification of ENSO rainfall. The uncertain amplitude changes in ENSO-related SST variability are the largest source of the uncertainty in ENSO rainfall changes through influencing the amplitude changes in ENSO-driven circulation variability, whereas the structural changes in ENSO SST and ENSO circulation enhancement in the central Pacific are more robust than the amplitude changes. The spatial pattern of the mean-state SST changes-the departure of local SST changes from the tropical mean-with an El Nino-like pattern is a relatively robust factor, although it also contains pronounced intermodel differences. The intermodel spread of historical ENSO circulation is another noteworthy source of the uncertainty in ENSO rainfall changes. The intermodel standard deviation of ENSO rainfall changes increases along with the increase in global-mean surface temperature. However, the robustness of enhanced ENSO rainfall changes in the central-eastern Pacific is almost unchanged, whereas the eastward shift of ENSO rainfall is increasingly robust along with the increase in global-mean surface temperature. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000391856300011 |
WOS关键词 | SURFACE TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY ; EL-NINO TELECONNECTIONS ; EQUATORIAL PACIFIC ; PRECIPITATION RESPONSE ; HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE ; ATMOSPHERIC BRIDGE ; LA-NINA ; CLIMATE ; OCEAN ; SST |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/19769 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Phys Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Ctr Monsoon Syst Res, Beijing, Peoples R China; 2.Phys Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, LASG, Beijing, Peoples R China; 3.Joint Ctr Global Change Studies, Beijing, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Huang, Ping. Time-Varying Response of ENSO-Induced Tropical Pacific Rainfall to Global Warming in CMIP5 Models. Part II: Intermodel Uncertainty[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(2). |
APA | Huang, Ping.(2017).Time-Varying Response of ENSO-Induced Tropical Pacific Rainfall to Global Warming in CMIP5 Models. Part II: Intermodel Uncertainty.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,30(2). |
MLA | Huang, Ping."Time-Varying Response of ENSO-Induced Tropical Pacific Rainfall to Global Warming in CMIP5 Models. Part II: Intermodel Uncertainty".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30.2(2017). |
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