Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0119.1 |
Patterns, Impacts, and Future Projections of Summer Variability in the Arctic from CMIP5 Models | |
Cai, Lei1,2,3; Alexeev, Vladimir A.1; Walsh, John E.1; Bhatt, Uma S.4 | |
2018-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 31期号:24页码:9815-9833 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Norway |
英文摘要 | Thirty models in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are evaluated for their performances in reproducing two summertime atmospheric circulation patterns in the Arctic: the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Arctic dipole (AD). The reference AO and AD are extracted from the ERA-Interim dataset (1979-2016). Model evaluation is conducted during the historical period (1901-2005). Models are ranked by a combined metrics approach based on two pattern correlation coefficients (PCCs) and two explained variances for the AO and AD, respectively. In the projected period (2006-2100), most models produce a positive trend for the AO index and a negative trend for the AD index in summer. The models ranked higher based on the combined metrics ranking show greater consistency and smaller values in the magnitudes of trends of AO and AD than the lower-ranked ones. The projected trends in the AO and AD contribute to a slight increase, if not a decrease, of the air temperature and an acceleration of precipitation increase in the twenty-first century over Arctic Alaska, which is the reverse of over the Barents and Kara Seas. Changes in the AO and AD are relatively minor contributing factors to the projected temperature and precipitation changes in the Arctic, among which the changes in the AD play a bigger role than those in the AO. The summer AO and AD have a stronger impact on the spatial asymmetry of the precipitation field than on the air temperature field. |
英文关键词 | Arctic Climate models Model evaluation performance Arctic Oscillation Climate variability |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000450407600002 |
WOS关键词 | SEA-ICE ; OSCILLATION ; REANALYSIS ; PERFORMANCE ; SKILL |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/19660 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Alaska Fairbanks, Int Arctic Res Ctr, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA; 2.NORCE Norwegian Res Ctr, Bergen, Norway; 3.Bjerknes Ctr Climate Res, Bergen, Norway; 4.Univ Alaska Fairbanks, Dept Atmospher Sci, Fairbanks, AK USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Cai, Lei,Alexeev, Vladimir A.,Walsh, John E.,et al. Patterns, Impacts, and Future Projections of Summer Variability in the Arctic from CMIP5 Models[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(24):9815-9833. |
APA | Cai, Lei,Alexeev, Vladimir A.,Walsh, John E.,&Bhatt, Uma S..(2018).Patterns, Impacts, and Future Projections of Summer Variability in the Arctic from CMIP5 Models.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(24),9815-9833. |
MLA | Cai, Lei,et al."Patterns, Impacts, and Future Projections of Summer Variability in the Arctic from CMIP5 Models".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.24(2018):9815-9833. |
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