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DOI10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0142.1
Linear Predictability: A Sea Surface Height Case Study
Sonnewald, Maike1; Wunsch, Carl1,2; Heimbach, Patrick1,3
2018-04-01
发表期刊JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
ISSN0894-8755
EISSN1520-0442
出版年2018
卷号31期号:7页码:2599-2611
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

A benchmark of linear predictability of sea surface height (SSH) globally is presented, complementing more complicated studies of SSH predictability. Twenty years of the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCOv4) state estimate (1992-2011) are used, fitting autoregressive moving average [ARMA(n, m)] models where the order of the coefficients is chosen by the Akaike information criteria (AIC). Up to 50% of the ocean SSH variability is dominated by the seasonal signal. The variance accounted for by the nonseasonal SSH is particularly distinct in the Southern and Pacific Oceans, containing >95% of the total SSH variance, and the expected prediction error growth takes a few months to reach a threshold of 1 cm. Isolated regions take 12 months or more to cross an accuracy threshold of 1 cm. Including the trend significantly increases the time taken to reach the threshold, particularly in the South Pacific. Annual averaging has expected prediction error growth of a few years to reach a threshold of 1 cm. Including the trend mainly increases the time taken to reach the threshold, but the time series is short and noisy.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000429456500004
WOS关键词STATE ESTIMATION ; MODEL SELECTION ; LEVEL RISE ; OCEAN ; CLIMATE ; VARIABILITY ; CIRCULATION ; ATLANTIC
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/19628
专题气候变化
作者单位1.MIT, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA;
2.Harvard Univ, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA;
3.Univ Texas Austin, Austin, TX 78712 USA
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GB/T 7714
Sonnewald, Maike,Wunsch, Carl,Heimbach, Patrick. Linear Predictability: A Sea Surface Height Case Study[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(7):2599-2611.
APA Sonnewald, Maike,Wunsch, Carl,&Heimbach, Patrick.(2018).Linear Predictability: A Sea Surface Height Case Study.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(7),2599-2611.
MLA Sonnewald, Maike,et al."Linear Predictability: A Sea Surface Height Case Study".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.7(2018):2599-2611.
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