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DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0803.1 |
Contribution of Atlantic and Pacific Multidecadal Variability to Twentieth-Century Temperature Changes | |
Stolpe, Martin B.; Medhaug, Iselin; Knutti, Reto | |
2017-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 30期号:16 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Switzerland |
英文摘要 | Recent studies have suggested that significant parts of the observed warming in the early and the late twentieth century were caused by multidecadal internal variability centered in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Here, a novel approach is used that searches for segments of unforced preindustrial control simulations from global climate models that best match the observed Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal variability (AMV and PMV, respectively). In this way, estimates of the influence of AMV and PMV on global temperature that are consistent both spatially and across variables are made. Combined Atlantic and Pacific internal variability impacts the global surface temperatures by up to 0.15 degrees C from peak-to-peak on multidecadal time scales. Internal variability contributed to the warming between the 1920s and 1940s, the subsequent cooling period, and the warming since then. However, variations in the rate of warming still remain after removing the influence of internal variability associated with AMV and PMV on the global temperatures. During most of the twentieth century, AMV dominates over PMV for the multidecadal internal variability imprint on global and Northern Hemisphere temperatures. Less than 10% of the observed global warming during the second half of the twentieth century is caused by internal variability in these two ocean basins, reinforcing the attribution of most of the observed warming to anthropogenic forcings. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000406040200013 |
WOS关键词 | OCEAN HEAT UPTAKE ; NORTH-ATLANTIC ; SURFACE-TEMPERATURE ; CLIMATE RESPONSE ; OVERTURNING CIRCULATION ; DECADAL MODULATION ; OSCILLATION ; MODELS ; AEROSOLS ; CMIP5 |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/19419 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Zurich, Switzerland |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Stolpe, Martin B.,Medhaug, Iselin,Knutti, Reto. Contribution of Atlantic and Pacific Multidecadal Variability to Twentieth-Century Temperature Changes[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(16). |
APA | Stolpe, Martin B.,Medhaug, Iselin,&Knutti, Reto.(2017).Contribution of Atlantic and Pacific Multidecadal Variability to Twentieth-Century Temperature Changes.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,30(16). |
MLA | Stolpe, Martin B.,et al."Contribution of Atlantic and Pacific Multidecadal Variability to Twentieth-Century Temperature Changes".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30.16(2017). |
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