Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.enpol.2017.02.023 |
Investment opportunity in China's overseas oil project: An empirical analysis based on real option approach | |
Tang, Bao-Jun1,2,3; Zhou, Hui-Ling1,2,3; Chen, Hao1,2,3; Wang, Kai4; Cao, Hong1,2,3 | |
2017-06-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENERGY POLICY
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ISSN | 0301-4215 |
EISSN | 1873-6777 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 105 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | China's overseas oil investments uphold national energy security. Located in the complex international economic and political environment, the benefits of overseas oil projects are affected by various uncertainties. Oil companies call for a set of evaluation method dealing with these uncertainties, especially when encountering low-oil-price conditions. It is much more crucial to answer when to optimally invest rather than whether to invest. This paper analyzes the investment opportunity of an oil project in the development and production phase considering uncertainty, irreversibility and management flexibility. The decision-making process combines Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method and the trinomial tree model of Real Option Approach (ROA). For practical purposes, tools of hurdle price, cumulative probability and decision tree are adopted. In addition, results of the case project show the economic feasibility at present and optimal start-up timing at the end of 2016. Besides, the lower cost parameters generally make it easier to meet the opportunity. The scenario analysis suggests the higher risk contributes to an earlier start-up. Furthermore, the issues of method applicability, investment signals and decision-lag effects are discussed. |
英文关键词 | Overseas oil project Investment opportunity Real option Trinomial tree |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000400532900003 |
WOS关键词 | VALUATION ; UNCERTAINTY ; ENERGY |
WOS类目 | Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Business & Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/19217 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Beijing Inst Technol, Ctr Energy & Environm Policy Res, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China; 2.Beijing Inst Technol, Sch Management & Econ, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China; 3.Collaborat Innovat Ctr Elect Vehicles Beijing, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China; 4.China Natl Petr Corp, Res Inst Petr Explorat & Dev, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tang, Bao-Jun,Zhou, Hui-Ling,Chen, Hao,et al. Investment opportunity in China's overseas oil project: An empirical analysis based on real option approach[J]. ENERGY POLICY,2017,105. |
APA | Tang, Bao-Jun,Zhou, Hui-Ling,Chen, Hao,Wang, Kai,&Cao, Hong.(2017).Investment opportunity in China's overseas oil project: An empirical analysis based on real option approach.ENERGY POLICY,105. |
MLA | Tang, Bao-Jun,et al."Investment opportunity in China's overseas oil project: An empirical analysis based on real option approach".ENERGY POLICY 105(2017). |
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