Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019GL085035 |
Skillful Seasonal Prediction of Eurasian Winter Blocking and Extreme Temperature Frequency | |
Miller, Douglas E.; Wang, Zhuo | |
2019-10-28 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2019 |
文章类型 | Article;Early Access |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Atmospheric blocking is a major producer of extreme weather events in midlatitudes that have profound socioeconomic impacts. However, few strides toward seasonal prediction of atmospheric blocking have been made. Here, we developed a new statistical model for prediction of the winter seasonal blocking frequency over Eurasia 1 month in advance using sea surface temperature, geopotential height at 70-hPa, and sea ice concentration as predictors, and the model captures more than 65% of the interannual variance. Furthermore, we applied the same predictors used for blocking prediction to predict the seasonal occurrence of winter extreme hot and cold days, and skillful prediction was achieved over Greenland and large portions of Eurasia. The predictive models provide insight into the seasonal predictability of atmospheric blocking and extreme temperature and also aide in valuable decisions across a variety of sectors. |
英文关键词 | Atmospheric Blocking Extreme Temperature Statistical Prediction |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000492820100001 |
WOS关键词 | NORTHERN-HEMISPHERE BLOCKING ; ATMOSPHERIC BLOCKING ; SEA-ICE ; ATLANTIC SST ; COLD ; REPRESENTATION ; DYNAMICS ; REGIMES ; VORTEX ; TIME |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/187802 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Univ Illinois, Urbana, IL 61801 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Miller, Douglas E.,Wang, Zhuo. Skillful Seasonal Prediction of Eurasian Winter Blocking and Extreme Temperature Frequency[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019. |
APA | Miller, Douglas E.,&Wang, Zhuo.(2019).Skillful Seasonal Prediction of Eurasian Winter Blocking and Extreme Temperature Frequency.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS. |
MLA | Miller, Douglas E.,et al."Skillful Seasonal Prediction of Eurasian Winter Blocking and Extreme Temperature Frequency".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2019). |
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