Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0892.1 |
Variability of the Cold Season Climate in Central Asia. Part II: Hydroclimatic Predictability | |
Gerlitz, Lars1; Steirou, Eva1; Schneider, Christoph2; Moron, Vincent3; Vorogushyn, Sergiy1; Merz, Bruno1,4 | |
2019-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 32期号:18页码:6015-6033 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany; France |
英文摘要 | Central Asia (CA) is subjected to a large variability of precipitation. This study presents a statistical model, relating precipitation anomalies in three subregions of CA in the cold season (November-March) with various predictors in the preceding October. Promising forecast skill is achieved for two subregions covering 1) Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and southern Kazakhstan and 2) Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. ENSO in October is identified as the major predictor. Eurasian snow cover and the quasi-biennial oscillation further improve the forecast performance. To understand the physical mechanisms, an analysis of teleconnections between these predictors and the wintertime circulation over CA is conducted. The correlation analysis of predictors and large-scale circulation indices suggests a seasonal persistence of tropical circulation modes and a dynamical forcing of the westerly circulation by snow cover variations over Eurasia. An EOF analysis of pressure and humidity patterns allows separating the circulation variability over CA into westerly and tropical modes and confirms that the identified predictors affect the respective circulation characteristics. Based on the previously established weather type classification for CA, the predictors are investigated with regard to their effect on the regional circulation. The results suggest a modification of the Hadley cell due to ENSO variations, with enhanced moisture supply from the Arabian Gulf during El Nino. They further indicate an influence of Eurasian snow cover on the wintertime Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Northern Hemispheric Rossby wave tracks. Positive anomalies favor weather types associated with dry conditions, while negative anomalies promote the formation of a quasi-stationary trough over CA, which typically occurs during positive AO conditions. |
英文关键词 | Asia Climate prediction Seasonal forecasting North Atlantic Oscillation Southern Oscillation |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000481822600003 |
WOS关键词 | CENTRAL-SOUTHWEST ASIA ; EURASIAN SNOW COVER ; ERA-INTERIM ; PRECIPITATION CLIMATE ; WINTER PRECIPITATION ; ICE ; OSCILLATION ; DROUGHT ; FORECAST ; PATTERN |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/186781 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.GFZ German Res Ctr Geosci, Hydrol Sect, Potsdam, Germany; 2.Humboldt Univ, Inst Geog, Berlin, Germany; 3.Aix Marseille Univ, CNRS, INRA, IRD,Coll France,CERFGE, Aix En Provence, France; 4.Univ Potsdam, Inst Environm Sci & Geog, Potsdam, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gerlitz, Lars,Steirou, Eva,Schneider, Christoph,et al. Variability of the Cold Season Climate in Central Asia. Part II: Hydroclimatic Predictability[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2019,32(18):6015-6033. |
APA | Gerlitz, Lars,Steirou, Eva,Schneider, Christoph,Moron, Vincent,Vorogushyn, Sergiy,&Merz, Bruno.(2019).Variability of the Cold Season Climate in Central Asia. Part II: Hydroclimatic Predictability.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,32(18),6015-6033. |
MLA | Gerlitz, Lars,et al."Variability of the Cold Season Climate in Central Asia. Part II: Hydroclimatic Predictability".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 32.18(2019):6015-6033. |
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