资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

An obvious warming trend in winter over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in the recent decades has been widely discussed, with studies emphasizing the dominant effects of local radiative factors, including those due to black carbon (BC). The Himalayas are one of the largest snowpack- and ice-covered regions in the TP, and an ideal area to investigate local radiative effects on climate change. In this study, the coupled climate feedback response analysis method (CFRAM) is applied to quantify the magnitude of warming over the Himalayas induced by different external forcing factors and climate feedback processes. The results show that snow/ice albedo feedback (SAF) resulted in a warming of approximately 2.6C and was the primary contributor to enhanced warming over the Himalayas in recent decades. This warming was much greater than the warming induced by dynamic and other radiative factors. In particular, the strong radiative effects of BC on the warming over the Himalayas are identified by comparing control and BC-perturbed experiments of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). As a result of strong BC effects on the Himalayas, evaporation and reduced precipitation were strengthened, accounting for local drying and land degradation, which intensified warming. These results suggest that more investigations on the local radiative effects on the climate and ecosystem are needed, especially in the high-altitude cryosphere.