Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.05.001 |
How robust are estimates of the rebound effect of energy efficiency improvements? A sensitivity analysis of consumer heterogeneity and elasticities | |
Kulmer, Veronika; Seebauer, Sebastian | |
2019-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENERGY POLICY
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ISSN | 0301-4215 |
EISSN | 1873-6777 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 132页码:1-14 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Austria |
英文摘要 | Economy-wide rebound effects may undermine climate policies relying on energy efficiency improvements. However, available rebound estimates diverge widely. We illustrate the crucial role of model assumptions of household heterogeneity and elasticities. A computable general equilibrium model of the Austrian economy incorporates multiple household groups with heterogeneous preferences and analyzes how improving efficiency by 10% affects household fossil fuel consumption. In the base model, economy-wide rebound is 65%; different household groups show direct rebound of 8-12%; thus, economy-wide rebound is mainly advanced by indirect rebound. A sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulation varies elasticities between household groups, namely substitutability between material and energy goods, and between different energy goods. In 160 simulation runs, the economy-wide rebound emerges as rather robust. By contrast, direct rebound varies widely among household groups and attains 30%, where reciprocal feedback between groups builds up. In the base model, a fossil fuel tax rate of 43% neutralizes the economy-wide rebound. When elasticities in 180 simulation runs are varied, this tax rate spans from 15% to 80%. Thus, rebound estimates and derived policy advice, such as specific rates and numbers, should be treated with great caution, unless elasticity parameters are reliable and account for heterogeneous consumer preferences. |
英文关键词 | Economy-wide rebound Sensitivity analysis CGE model Household heterogeneity |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000483425800001 |
WOS关键词 | GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM-ANALYSIS ; TECHNICAL CHANGE ; US HOUSEHOLDS ; ECONOMY-WIDE ; CGE MODELS ; LAND-USE ; SUBSTITUTION ; IMPACTS ; INTEGRATION ; DEMAND |
WOS类目 | Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Business & Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/186468 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Joanneum Res Forsch Gesell mbH, LIFE Ctr Climate Energy & Soc, Leonhardstr 59, A-8010 Graz, Austria |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kulmer, Veronika,Seebauer, Sebastian. How robust are estimates of the rebound effect of energy efficiency improvements? A sensitivity analysis of consumer heterogeneity and elasticities[J]. ENERGY POLICY,2019,132:1-14. |
APA | Kulmer, Veronika,&Seebauer, Sebastian.(2019).How robust are estimates of the rebound effect of energy efficiency improvements? A sensitivity analysis of consumer heterogeneity and elasticities.ENERGY POLICY,132,1-14. |
MLA | Kulmer, Veronika,et al."How robust are estimates of the rebound effect of energy efficiency improvements? A sensitivity analysis of consumer heterogeneity and elasticities".ENERGY POLICY 132(2019):1-14. |
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