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DOI10.1088/1748-9326/ab35a6
The global and regional impacts of climate change under representative concentration pathway forcings and shared socioeconomic pathway socioeconomic scenarios
Arnell, N. W.1; Lowe, J. A.2,3; Bernie, D.2; Nicholls, R. J.4; Brown, S.4,5; Challinor, A. J.3; Osborn, T. J.6
2019-08-01
发表期刊ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN1748-9326
出版年2019
卷号14期号:8
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家England
英文摘要

This paper presents an evaluation of the global and regional consequences of climate change for heat extremes, water resources, river and coastal flooding, droughts, agriculture and energy use. It presents change in hazard and resource base under different rates of climate change (representative concentration pathways (RCP)), and socio-economic impacts are estimated for each combination of RCP and shared socioeconomic pathway. Uncertainty in the regional pattern of climate change is characterised by CMIP5 climate model projections. The analysis adopts a novel approach using relationships between level of warming and impact to rapidly estimate impacts under any climate forcing. The projections provided here can be used to inform assessments of the implications of climate change. At the global scale all the consequences of climate change considered here are adverse, with large increases under the highest rates of warming. Under the highest forcing the global average annual chance of a major heatwave increases from 5% now to 97% in 2100, the average proportion of time in drought increases from 7% to 27%, and the average chance of the current 50 year flood increases from 2% to 7%. The socio-economic impacts of these climate changes are determined by socio-economic scenario. There is variability in impact across regions, reflecting variability in projected changes in precipitation and temperature. The range in the estimated impacts can be large, due to uncertainty in future emissions and future socio-economic conditions and scientific uncertainty in how climate changes in response to future emissions. For the temperature-based indicators, the largest source of scientific uncertainty is in the estimated magnitude of equilibrium climate sensitivity, but for the indicators determined by precipitation the largest source is in the estimated spatial and seasonal pattern of changes in precipitation. By 2100, the range across socioeconomic scenario is often greater than the range across the forcing levels.


英文关键词climate change hazard drought flood heatwave agricultural impacts ScenarioMIP
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号WOS:000481867200003
WOS关键词DEGREES-C ; PROJECTIONS ; LEVEL ; POLICY ; DAMAGE
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/185573
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading, Berks, England;
2.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England;
3.Univ Leeds, Priestley Ctr, Leeds, W Yorkshire, England;
4.Univ Southampton, Engn & Environm, Southampton, Hants, England;
5.Bournemouth Univ, Fac Sci & Technol, Dept Life & Environm Sci, Bournemouth, Dorset, England;
6.Univ East Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Climat Res Unit, Norwich, Norfolk, England
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Arnell, N. W.,Lowe, J. A.,Bernie, D.,et al. The global and regional impacts of climate change under representative concentration pathway forcings and shared socioeconomic pathway socioeconomic scenarios[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,14(8).
APA Arnell, N. W..,Lowe, J. A..,Bernie, D..,Nicholls, R. J..,Brown, S..,...&Osborn, T. J..(2019).The global and regional impacts of climate change under representative concentration pathway forcings and shared socioeconomic pathway socioeconomic scenarios.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,14(8).
MLA Arnell, N. W.,et al."The global and regional impacts of climate change under representative concentration pathway forcings and shared socioeconomic pathway socioeconomic scenarios".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 14.8(2019).
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