Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/joc.6212 |
Nonstationarity of summer temperature extremes in Texas | |
Carney, Meagan; Azencott, Robert; Nicol, Matthew | |
2019-07-21 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY |
ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2019 |
文章类型 | Article;Early Access |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Modelling seasonal temperature extremes in weather patterns allows for better forecasting and prediction. Analysis of extreme values over a given time period is usually done by fitting a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to the maximum values in the data; however, lack of sufficient weather recordings due to missing data or violation of independence assumptions (block maxima should be over a large time interval) may result in a poor fit for the GEV model. Modelling over larger, clustered regions may overcome some of these problems and can provide insight into macroscopic weather and climate changes. In this article, we analyse temperature measurements in July and August taken from stations across Texas and New Orleans, Louisiana. We introduce clustering techniques which group stations by temperature trends and mutual information before performing extreme value analysis on the clusters of time series. This obviates some of the problems commonly encountered in analysing single station weather data. Extreme analysis of the resulting clusters provides compelling evidence of nonstationarity of the distributional parameters in the GEV model and points to an increased likelihood from the period roughly 1980 to present of observing higher extreme temperatures for the months of July and August. We tabulate the probabilities of extreme temperatures in the clusters according to a nonstationary model. Our techniques can be easily adapted to a wide range of climatological problems. |
英文关键词 | climate clustering extreme value theory extremes nonstationary temperature |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000477470600001 |
WOS关键词 | UNITED-STATES ; EVENTS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/185185 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Univ Houston, Dept Math, Houston, TX 77204 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Carney, Meagan,Azencott, Robert,Nicol, Matthew. Nonstationarity of summer temperature extremes in Texas[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019. |
APA | Carney, Meagan,Azencott, Robert,&Nicol, Matthew.(2019).Nonstationarity of summer temperature extremes in Texas.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY. |
MLA | Carney, Meagan,et al."Nonstationarity of summer temperature extremes in Texas".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY (2019). |
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