Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/s41558-019-0500-2 |
Amazonian tree species threatened by deforestation and climate change | |
Gomes, Vitor H. F.1,2; Vieira, Ima C. G.1,2; Salomao, Rafael P.3; ter Steege, Hans3,4,5 | |
2019-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE |
ISSN | 1758-678X |
EISSN | 1758-6798 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 9期号:7页码:547-+ |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Brazil; Netherlands |
英文摘要 | Deforestation is currently the major threat to Amazonian tree species but climate change may surpass it in just a few decades. Here, we show that climate and deforestation combined could cause a decline of up to 58% in Amazon tree species richness, whilst deforestation alone may cause 19-36% and climate change 31-37% by 2050. Quantification is achieved by overlaying species distribution models for current and future climate change scenarios with historical and projected deforestation. Species may lose an average of 65% of their original environmentally suitable area, and a total of 53% may be threatened according to IUCN Red List criteria; however, Amazonian protected area networks reduce these impacts. The worst-case combined scenario-assuming no substantial climate or deforestation policy progress-suggests that by 2050 the Amazonian lowland rainforest may be cut into two blocks: one continuous block with 53% of the original area and another severely fragmented block. This outlook urges rapid progress to zero deforestation, which would help to mitigate climate change and foster biodiversity conservation. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000472753300019 |
WOS关键词 | TROPICAL BIODIVERSITY ; DISTRIBUTION MODELS ; FOREST ; DIVERSITY ; FUTURE ; CONSERVATION |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/184790 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Fed Para, Programa Posgrad Ciencia Ambientais, Belem, Para, Brazil; 2.Museu Paraense Emilio Goeldi, Coordenacao Bot, Belem, Para, Brazil; 3.Univ Fed Rural Amazonia, Belem, Para, Brazil; 4.Naturalis Biodivers Ctr, Leiden, Netherlands; 5.Free Univ Amsterdam, Syst Ecol, Amsterdam, Netherlands |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gomes, Vitor H. F.,Vieira, Ima C. G.,Salomao, Rafael P.,et al. Amazonian tree species threatened by deforestation and climate change[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2019,9(7):547-+. |
APA | Gomes, Vitor H. F.,Vieira, Ima C. G.,Salomao, Rafael P.,&ter Steege, Hans.(2019).Amazonian tree species threatened by deforestation and climate change.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,9(7),547-+. |
MLA | Gomes, Vitor H. F.,et al."Amazonian tree species threatened by deforestation and climate change".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 9.7(2019):547-+. |
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