资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

This paper examines transitioning to low carbon vehicles such as battery electric vehicles (BEVs), hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs), and natural gas vehicles (NGVs) for curbing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Japan. Infrastructure development for fuel charging stations for BEVs, FCVs and NGVs and the carbon tax are evaluated as policy measures to promote these vehicle fleets as well as the reduction in the life cycle GHG emissions. Our analysis uses the newly developed Japanese multi-regional partial equilibrium system dynamics model UniSyD_JP. The energy supply sector consists of fossil fuels, nuclear energy, renewable energy and hydrogen and the nation's energy demand is projected by the expected population growth and the GDP outlook. The energy demand for the transport sector is endogenously determined by a consumer's vehicle choice characterized by the multinomial logit model. We examine five scenarios for different mixes of infrastructure development, carbon tax and projected oil price. The transition paths to a low carbon vehicle fleet are explored for the period of 2016-2060. We found that infrastructure development increases the penetration of FCVs and NGVs, but it will not reduce the life cycle GHG emissions. Significant emissions reduction requires both infrastructure development and high carbon taxes.