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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-018-4584-6 |
Estimating daily climatological normals in a changing climate | |
Rigal, Alix1,2; Azais, Jean-Marc3; Ribes, Aurelien1,2 | |
2019-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 53页码:275-286 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | France |
英文摘要 | Climatological normals are widely used baselines for the description and the characterization of a given meteorological situation. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) standard recommends estimating climatological normals as the average of observations over a 30-year period. This approach may lead to strongly biased normals in a changing climate. Here we propose a new method with which to estimate daily climatological normals in a non-stationary climate. Our statistical framework relies on the assumption that the response to climate change is smooth over time, and on a decomposition of the response inspired by the pattern scaling assumption. Estimation is carried out using smoothing splines techniques, with a careful examination of the selection of smoothing parameters. The new method is compared, in a predictive sense and in a perfect model framework, to previously proposed alternatives such as the WMO standard (reset either on a decadal or annual basis), averages over shorter periods, and hinge fits. Results show that our technique outperforms all alternatives considered. They confirm that previously proposed techniques are substantially biasedbiases are typically as large as a few tenths to more than 1C by the end of the centurywhile our method is not. We argue that such climate change corrected normals might be very useful for climate monitoring, and that weather services could consider using two different sets of normals (i.e. both stationary and non-stationary) for different purposes. |
英文关键词 | Daily climate normals Unbiased estimate Normals accounting for climate change Smoothing splines |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000471722400017 |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/184372 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Meteo France, CNRM, UMR3589, Toulouse, France; 2.CNRS, Toulouse, France; 3.Univ Paul Sabatier, Inst Math, F-31062 Toulouse 09, France |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Rigal, Alix,Azais, Jean-Marc,Ribes, Aurelien. Estimating daily climatological normals in a changing climate[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,53:275-286. |
APA | Rigal, Alix,Azais, Jean-Marc,&Ribes, Aurelien.(2019).Estimating daily climatological normals in a changing climate.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,53,275-286. |
MLA | Rigal, Alix,et al."Estimating daily climatological normals in a changing climate".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 53(2019):275-286. |
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