Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ab1e75 |
Unpacking the climatic drivers of US agricultural yields | |
Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel1; Wang, Haoying2; Carrillo, Carlos M.3; Ault, Toby R.3 | |
2019-06-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 14期号:6 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Understanding the climatic drivers of present-day agricultural yields is critical for prioritizing adaptation strategies to climate change. However, unpacking the contribution of different environmental stressors remains elusive in large-scale observational settings in part because of the lack of an extensive long-term network of soil moisture measurements and the common seasonal concurrence of droughts and heat waves. In this study, we link state-of-the-art land surface model data and fine-scale weather information with a long panel of county-level yields for six major US crops (1981-2017) to unpack their historical and future climatic drivers. To this end, we develop a statistical approach that flexibly characterizes the distinct intra-seasonal yield sensitivities to high-frequency fluctuations of soil moisture and temperature. In contrast with previous statistical evidence, we directly elicit an important role of water stress in explaining historical yields. However, our models project the direct effect of temperature-which we interpret as heat stress-remains the primary climatic driver of future yields under climate change. |
英文关键词 | crop yields temperature moisture climate change statistical model United States |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000469027600001 |
WOS关键词 | MAIZE ; HEAT ; TEMPERATURES ; ADAPTATION ; DROUGHT ; FOOD |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/183734 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Cornell Univ, Charles H Dyson Sch Appl Econ & Management, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA; 2.New Mexico Inst Min & Technol, Dept Business & Technol Management, Socorro, NM 87801 USA; 3.Cornell Univ, Dept Earth & Atmospher Sci, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel,Wang, Haoying,Carrillo, Carlos M.,et al. Unpacking the climatic drivers of US agricultural yields[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,14(6). |
APA | Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel,Wang, Haoying,Carrillo, Carlos M.,&Ault, Toby R..(2019).Unpacking the climatic drivers of US agricultural yields.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,14(6). |
MLA | Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel,et al."Unpacking the climatic drivers of US agricultural yields".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 14.6(2019). |
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