GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1007/s00382-018-4461-3
Robustness of Arctic sea-ice predictability in GCMs
Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E.1; Bushuk, M.2,3
2019-05-01
发表期刊CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN0930-7575
EISSN1432-0894
出版年2019
卷号52页码:5555-5566
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

General circulation models have been amply used to quantify Arctic sea-ice predictability. While models share some common aspects of predictability loss with increasing forecast lead time, there is significant model spread in the magnitude and timing of predictability loss. Here we show that inter-model differences in predictability are linked to inter-model differences in the persistence timescales of sea-ice anomalies that are unique to each model, with models that exhibit longer persistence having higher potential predictability. Given this result and previous work showing that in a single model control simulation the magnitude of persistence fluctuates between multi-annual periods of high and low persistence, we assess whether initial-value predictability is dependent on the persistence state of the initial conditions. We find that predictability is not clearly impacted by the persistence state of the initial conditions, suggesting that predictability may be robust within a constant climate mean state.


英文关键词Sea ice Predictability Arctic GCMs
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000465441400026
WOS关键词SEASONAL PREDICTIONS ; FORECASTS ; EXTENT
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/182602
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Univ Washington, Dept Atmospher Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA;
2.NOAA, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ USA;
3.Univ Corp Atmospheric Res, Boulder, CO USA
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Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E.,Bushuk, M.. Robustness of Arctic sea-ice predictability in GCMs[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,52:5555-5566.
APA Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E.,&Bushuk, M..(2019).Robustness of Arctic sea-ice predictability in GCMs.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,52,5555-5566.
MLA Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E.,et al."Robustness of Arctic sea-ice predictability in GCMs".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 52(2019):5555-5566.
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