Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-018-4461-3 |
Robustness of Arctic sea-ice predictability in GCMs | |
Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E.1; Bushuk, M.2,3 | |
2019-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 52页码:5555-5566 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | General circulation models have been amply used to quantify Arctic sea-ice predictability. While models share some common aspects of predictability loss with increasing forecast lead time, there is significant model spread in the magnitude and timing of predictability loss. Here we show that inter-model differences in predictability are linked to inter-model differences in the persistence timescales of sea-ice anomalies that are unique to each model, with models that exhibit longer persistence having higher potential predictability. Given this result and previous work showing that in a single model control simulation the magnitude of persistence fluctuates between multi-annual periods of high and low persistence, we assess whether initial-value predictability is dependent on the persistence state of the initial conditions. We find that predictability is not clearly impacted by the persistence state of the initial conditions, suggesting that predictability may be robust within a constant climate mean state. |
英文关键词 | Sea ice Predictability Arctic GCMs |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000465441400026 |
WOS关键词 | SEASONAL PREDICTIONS ; FORECASTS ; EXTENT |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/182602 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Washington, Dept Atmospher Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA; 2.NOAA, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ USA; 3.Univ Corp Atmospheric Res, Boulder, CO USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E.,Bushuk, M.. Robustness of Arctic sea-ice predictability in GCMs[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,52:5555-5566. |
APA | Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E.,&Bushuk, M..(2019).Robustness of Arctic sea-ice predictability in GCMs.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,52,5555-5566. |
MLA | Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E.,et al."Robustness of Arctic sea-ice predictability in GCMs".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 52(2019):5555-5566. |
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