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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-018-4366-1 |
Seasonal predictability of winter ENSO types in operational dynamical model predictions | |
Ren, Hong-Li1,2,3; Scaife, Adam A.4,5; Dunstone, Nick4; Tian, Ben1,2; Liu, Ying1,2; Ineson, Sarah4; Lee, June-Yi6; Smith, Doug4; Liu, Changzheng1,2; Thompson, Vikki4; Vellinga, Michael4; MacLachlan, Craig4 | |
2019-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 52页码:3869-3890 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; England; South Korea |
英文摘要 | The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events of recent decades have been divided into the two different types based on their spatial patterns, the Eastern Pacific (EP) type and Central Pacific (CP) type. Their most significant difference is the distinguished zonal center locations of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific. In this study, based on six operational climate models, we evaluate predictability of the two types of ENSO events in winter to examine whether dynamical predictions can distinguish between the two spatial patterns at lead time of 1month and tell us more than simply whether an event is on the way. We show that winter EP and CP El Nino and La Nina events can only be distinguished in a minority of these models at 1-month lead, and the EP type tends to has a more realistic zonal positions of SST pattern centers than the CP type. Compared to the SST patterns, the differences between the two types are less apparent in precipitation especially for the two La Nina types in the models. Examinations of the extratropical teleconnections to the two ENSO types show that some of the models can reproduce the differences between EP and CP teleconnections. Evaluations of model predictions show that the EP El Nino event has the same level hit rate with the CP El Nino and the CP La Nina event has much higher hit rate than the EP La Nina. While the multi-model ensemble increases Nino index prediction skill, it does not help to improve forecast skill of center longitude index of the SST patterns and distinguish the two types of ENSO events. Although ENSO skill is very high at this lead time, the rapid loss of the initialized information on the different ENSO types in most of the models severely limits the predictability of the two types of winter ENSO events and more research is needed to improve the performance of climate models in forecasting the two ENSO types. |
英文关键词 | Two types of winter ENSO events Predictability Dynamical model Evaluation |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000467187600007 |
WOS关键词 | EAST-ASIAN CLIMATE ; EL-NINO ; NORTH-ATLANTIC ; SURFACE-TEMPERATURE ; COUPLED MODEL ; PACIFIC RIM ; FORECAST ; IMPACTS ; OCEAN ; SYSTEM |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/181877 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Lab Climate Studies, 46 Zhongguancun, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China; 2.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, CMA NJU Joint Lab Climate Predict Studies, 46 Zhongguancun, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China; 3.China Univ Geosci, Sch Environm Studies, Dept Atmospher Sci, Wuhan 430074, Hubei, Peoples R China; 4.Met Off, Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England; 5.Exeter Univ, Coll Engn Math & Phys Sci, Exeter, Devon, England; 6.Pusan Natl Univ, Res Ctr Climate Sci, Busan, South Korea |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ren, Hong-Li,Scaife, Adam A.,Dunstone, Nick,et al. Seasonal predictability of winter ENSO types in operational dynamical model predictions[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,52:3869-3890. |
APA | Ren, Hong-Li.,Scaife, Adam A..,Dunstone, Nick.,Tian, Ben.,Liu, Ying.,...&MacLachlan, Craig.(2019).Seasonal predictability of winter ENSO types in operational dynamical model predictions.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,52,3869-3890. |
MLA | Ren, Hong-Li,et al."Seasonal predictability of winter ENSO types in operational dynamical model predictions".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 52(2019):3869-3890. |
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